COP28: Pressure builds on UAE to deliver consensus on fossil fuels

The central presence and role of the fossil fuel industry at this year's UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai has become a prominent theme of the event, with conflicts of interest threatening to overshadow climate policy actions.

If world leaders fail to forge a consensus on the phaseout or phase-down of coal and oil, COP28's host UAE will likely be subject to intense criticism.

Ever since Sultan al-Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and renewable firm Masdar, was made President of COP28 in early 2023, his credibility has been questioned.

Jaber, who has been touring the world since his appointment, has regularly said the phase-down of fossil fuels is "inevitable" and "essential," while acknowledging the renewable energy sector needs to grow at a much faster pace.

At the same time, several climate negotiators and policymakers have conceded the phasing out of unabated fossil fuels is likely to be one of the most contentious issues to be discussed in Dubai, with the prospect of a breakthrough in wording seen as remote.

Divergent views

At 2021's COP26 climate meeting in Glasgow, world leaders failed to agree on "phase out" wording for coal in a final text, China and India forcing a softening to a "coal phase down" without timelines.

With both nations still building new coal plants, a re-run of this debate is expected this year with negotiations hinging on whether parties can compromise on wording and funding levels.

Many countries have called for an ambitious but well-managed phaseout of fossil fuels, but key oil producer nations fear this approach will harm their economies, instead calling for the elimination of emissions via carbon capture, utilization and storage.

The EU has said it will push for a global phaseout of unabated fossil fuels before or by 2050 as its negotiating position in Dubai. The US is likely to support this proposal, but China and Russia remain opposed, and India has remained silent on this issue in recent months.

Financial incentive

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights said the language and deployment of climate finance would be key to negotiations around the future of fossil fuels.

"Developed nations may be likely to support the provision as it aligns with their current decarbonization goals, and some of the small island states have voiced support for the proposal that could reduce emissions and therefore lower their climate risks, but several emerging and developing economies have either openly opposed the proposal or been notably silent on the topic," they said in a recent note.

Majid al-Suwaidi, the director-general of COP28, said this issue would make for "hard conversations" and will be hotly debated in Dubai.

"On the issue of fossil fuels, we want to see these conversations happen. Remember, we have our four pillars of fast tracking the energy transition and fossil fuels are part of that conversation. We also need to talk about decarbonization of the energy system we have today. How do we build up the energy system of the future? How do we start to make the right investments that are part of fixing the finance piece," he said in a recent press briefing.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has repeatedly said phasing out fossil fuels was urgently needed for the world to meet its Paris Agreement commitments, to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Pre-COP noise

Pressure on UAE mounted Nov. 27 after reports that Jaber was primed by briefing notes to discuss commercial energy deals in bilateral meetings supposed to focus on COP28.

Internal documents leaked by a whistleblower purported to reveal COP28 staff members were told that ADNOC and Masdar talking points "always need to be included" in briefings prepared for Jaber ahead of the meetings, according to a joint investigation published by the Centre for Climate Reporting and the BBC on Nov. 27.

When contacted, the COP28 team rejected the accusations.

"The documents referred to in the BBC article are inaccurate and were not used by COP28 in meetings," a COP28 spokesperson told S&P Global.

Nevertheless, the episode has added to the narrative that allowing a fossil-fuel nation to host the talks creates an obstacle to effective climate action. COP28 remains a golden opportunity for the oil sector to step up and take a leadership role, but it must also deal with an overwhelmingly skeptical fourth estate.