COP28: UN says bold, immediate action needed at Dubai to meet climate goals

National and international climate goals are way off track and require leaders to make bold decisions at the global climate summit in Dubai to bend the world's emissions curve, the UN said Nov. 14.

In its latest report, The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change said current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) were akin to "only baby steps" and governments needed to be laser focused on finding climate solutions at COP28.

"We must firmly leave fossil fuel dependency behind and show how only renewables offer secure, affordable energy for all, amid a cost-of-living crisis partly fueled by volatile oil, coal and gas," said UNFCCC executive-secretary Simon Stiell.

COP28 must be a clear turning point, he said: "Governments must not only agree what stronger climate actions will be taken, but also start showing exactly how to deliver them."

Wording on a fossil fuel phaseout is set to be one of the most contentious issues in Dubai.

Many countries have called for an ambitious but well managed phaseout of fossil fuels, but key oil producer nations fear this approach will harm their economies, instead calling for the elimination of emissions via carbon capture, utilization and storage.

The talks from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12 are taking place in a region where more than a third of the world's total oil exports are produced. President-designate of COP28, Sultan al-Jaber, is also CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

In an interview with S&P Global Commodity Insights, the head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol admitted that a "successful" COP28 would hinge on a stronger commitment to climate goals by key fossil fuel producers.

The UNFCCC has repeatedly reiterated that phasing out fossil fuels is urgently needed for the world to meet its Paris Agreement commitments, to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Stocktake priority

Stiell said the conclusion of the global stocktake at COP28 was essential to "regain momentum" to scale up global climate efforts to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The global stocktake, considered to be the center piece of the Dubai talks, itemizes what countries and stakeholders are doing or failing to do to meet their commitments.

The stocktake is also designed to help chart solution pathways to 2050 and help set more ambitious targets at a global and national level, including goals for the increased deployment of renewable energy.

"Present commitments put the 1.5 C Paris Agreement goal out of reach. The conclusion of the first ever Global Stocktake at COP28 will be a defining moment to assess current gaps and accelerate efforts in climate ambition and implementation," said Sara Giordano, principal research analyst, S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The report showed that under current NDCs, 2030 emissions are projected to be only 2% below 2019 levels, and if fully implemented, would only lead to a 9% decrease in emissions in 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

"For emissions to peak before 2030, the conditional elements of the NDCs need to be implemented, which depends mostly on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; as well as the availability of market-based mechanisms," according to the report.

In net-zero scenarios, the gap was even wider, at an estimated 22.9 (21.3–27.9) GtCO2e.

The difference between current conditional NDC targets and a Paris-aligned target in 2030 is "notable" and amounts to approximately 16 GtCO2e, according to analysts at S&P Global.

In a recent interview, COP28 Director-General Majid al-Suwaidi told S&P Global Commodity Insights that fast-tracking the pace of the energy transition is a key objective at the global climate summit.

"We are laser-focused on achieving the 1.5 C target, as well as on how we address the mitigation, emissions and finance gaps, and make good on promises that were made as part of the Paris Agreement," Suwaidi told S&P Global. "That is why we have ambitious targets when it comes to tripling renewable capacity, doubling hydrogen capacity and doubling energy efficiency. We need to decarbonize the energy system we have today, while we build up the energy system of the future."