Japan launches climate policy review ahead of 2035 deadline for GHG emissions cut

Japan held a series of discussions June 28 to formulate a fresh plan on countering global warming -- laying the foundation for the government to consider new greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2035 that will be summitted to the UN by February next year.

The meeting -- jointly held by the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry -- signals growing efforts by the government to review the country's key energy and climate policies by end-2024, as Japan aims to map out a new national strategy for its green initiative "GX 2040 Vision" by end-March 2025.

"At this meeting, we hope to discuss and explore climate change countermeasures in detail that backs submission of the NDC [Nationally Determined Contribution] to the UN by next February, while bringing discussions to form the 7th Strategic Energy Plan and efforts based on the GX promotion strategy into perspective," said Tetsuya Yagi, state minister of the environment, at the meeting.

The key meeting highlights included how Japan should consider a need of 60% GHG emission cut by 2035, as recognized at COP28.

The first global stocktake approved at CO28 in December 2023 recognized that limiting global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global GHG of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

The development comes after Japan on May 15 launched a series of policy discussions to form a new Strategic Energy Plan, the country's principal energy policy, by the end of fiscal year 2024-25 (April-March), in its quest to bolster energy security and accelerate decarbonization.

The review of the Strategic Energy Plan, which was last formulated in October 2021, comes as the fossil-fuel import dependent country faces challenges as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, heightened tensions in the Middle East and global energy supply and price risks.

"A quest for energy security has risen more than ever before at a time when moves toward decarbonization are expanding," METI minister Ken Saito said during the launch of discussions for the Strategic Energy Plan.

"While the demand for decarbonization power sources is expected to expand as a result of advancement of digital transformation, it is not an exaggeration to say that the capability to supply decarbonized energy in a stable manner will critically affect the national power," Saito said.

Describing transformation toward decarbonization energy "extremely difficult" for the world pursuing net-zero pathways amid uncertainty over demand and technology aspects, Saito said, "I have a strong sense of crisis that Japan is in the most difficult stage for energy policy in a postwar period."

The review of the Strategic Energy Plan required by law also coincides with the government needing to formulate a new NDC for 2035.

The review and formation of the new Strategic Energy Plan is closely watched by industry participants as a guiding principle for companies deciding on energy supply as well as investments for energy transition. It is widely expected that an energy mix laid out after the review will form the basis of the NDC.

Needing flexibility

The Japanese government said May 13 that it plans to map out the new "GX 2040 Vision" by the end of FY 2024-25, when it will reflect upon discussions for the Strategic Energy Plan and the NDC.

Following the end of a May 13 GX meeting chaired by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the country's top leader said, "there is a limitation in the method of presenting numbers in a single energy mix" while commenting on the Strategic Energy Plan and NDC reviews.

"It is increasingly important to be prepared with a flexible structure suitable for a sudden change in an assumption," Kishida said.

The current 6th Strategic Energy Plan calls for non-fossil fuel power supply sources to account for roughly 60% of the country's electricity mix by FY 2030-31, compared with a 24% share in FY 2019-20.

Under the plan, Japan expects renewable energy to account for 36%-38% of the country's electricity generation mix in FY 2030-31, with the introduction of 1% hydrogen/ammonia, and 20-22% nuclear power -- totaling 57%-61% of the non-fossil fuel power supply.

It envisages LNG comprising 20% of FY 2030-31 power supply sources, with coal accounting for 19% and oil for 2%.

Under its current NDC submitted in 2021, Japan targets a 46% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by FY 2030-31 from FY 2013-14 levels.