EV price parity with fossil fuel cars by 2023-24 'will change everything in cities': BIR speaker

Electric vehicles are already reaching price parity with efficient fossil-fuel vehicles in some countries and this should occur in all major consuming markets by 2024, boosting demand for EV batteries and battery materials, Alvaro Rodriguez, Spain public affairs director of electric scooters manufacturer VOI, told the International Recycling Bureau (BIR) conference in Barcelona this week.

"And once we reach price parity everything in the city will change," Rodriguez said, noting that currently, carbon emissions from road transport kill 9 million people a year and are responsible for one third of global carbon emissions.

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance data presented by Rodriguez at the event, EVs are reaching price parity this year in the US, Australia and Europe for large cars, and in the US and Australia for SUVs.

"By 2023 in the US and Australia price parity will be reached for all segments of the car market, and in China for midsize cars," he said. "By 2024 price parity will be reached in Europe for SUVs and midsize cars."

What happens in the market now, with the switch over to EVs, will start to impact the scrap industry in 10 years' time, he said, noting that EV batteries may typically be recycled after 10 years' useful life.

EV batteries may contain nickel, cobalt, lithium, manganese and graphite.

The 33 kWh Li-ion traction battery of the BMW i3 electric vehicle contains 2 kg of cobalt, 6 kg of lithium, 12 kg of manganese, 12 kg of nickel and 35 kg of graphite, Rodriguez said.

Rodriguez said he believes that there will be 550 million EVs (in circulation globally) by 2040 -- up from around 7 million at present -- and 10 years after that there will be substantial quantities of battery waste for recycling.

He indicated he was optimistic about a high level of EV battery recycling being achieved, judging by the experience of recycling lead-acid batteries, which are today 97% recycled, with 70% of the battery weight being reusable lead.

"In Spain the last lead mine was closed some 15 years ago but we produce 100,000 mt/lead a year (from recycling)" he said. "Recycling lead batteries is perfect and economical."

Lithium recycling is meanwhile completely different from lead recycling and "we're just at the very first step of a big, big wave," Rodriguez said.

Lithium chemicals prices nearly doubled during the first quarter of 2022, but lost some momentum in March.

Platts assessed its weekly CIF North Asia lithium carbonate price at $76,000/mt May 20, up $700/mt on week, data by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed.

Global design for recycling needed

Ranjit Singh Baxi, founding president of the Global Recycling Foundation and past-president of BIR, said he believed that net-zero climate targets and EV rollout targets will not be met because of lack of harmonization between different parts of the EVs and batteries industry. A global harmonization policy is needed, he said.

"In real life everything is so unconnected," Baxi said on the sidelines of BIR. "Let's not live the rhetoric alone. With growing demand, the manufacturers need to be in constant contact with the recyclers on recycling possibilities."

EV manufacturers need to operate a global harmonization policy amongst themselves on the chemistries and materials used in their batteries so that recycling can be undertaken at scale, according to Baxi. Large-scale battery metals recycling is perceived as necessary for the EVs roll-out due to the potential unavailability of sufficient primary metals supplies in future years.

"Today everyone is very cost-conscious on battery technology but (the technologies chosen) may not be recycling-friendly. Cobalt is a very highly toxic item," the Global Recycling Foundation president said.

Platts assessed its weekly cobalt sulfate CIF North Asia price at $17,800/mt May 20, up $100/mt on week, data by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed.