France's EDF sees 2024 French nuclear output in upper range of forecast

Europe's biggest power generator EDF sees 2024 French nuclear output in the upper range of its forecast after reactor availability improved, contributing to a sharp drop in power prices likely to be sustained, the state-owned utility said July 26.

Nuclear production in France rose 12.2% on the year to 177.4 TWh in the first half of 2024, "reflecting good operational performance whereas H1 2023 was affected by stress corrosion repairs and industrial action," it said.

EDF kept its full year estimate unchanged in a range of 315-345 TWh.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights in June lifted their forecast for the 2024 French nuclear output to 342 TWh. July output is on track to exceed the forecast with the 200 TWh mark to be reached late July 26.

EDF's nuclear estimate excludes output from its new 1.6-GW Flamanville-3 reactor(opens in a new tab). First power from France's first new reactor in a generation is "imminent" with first grid connection a few weeks later, it added.

French nuclear output in the second quarter was impacted by fuel savings modulation stops for some reactors, EDF said in its report.

The company also noted a negative price impact from maintenance work carried out by its grid unit RTE on France's national electricity network since March, which limited interconnection capacities with neighboring countries to the East.

As a result, French power price levels significantly decoupled, while French net export still more than doubled despite these limitations, it said.

France exported a record 50 TWh in H1.

French hourly prices were zero or negative for 347 hours (8% of the time), compared with 67 hours in H1 2023.

In a press conference, CFO Xavier Girre said group earnings were to decline this year and next from the Eur39 billion ($42 billion) EBITDA in 2023 with lower power prices weighing on the 2024 result by Eur8-11 billion, while improved nuclear performance adds Eur2-5 billion.

"Against a backdrop of a rapid and sustained fall in market prices, EDF is rolling out its new 'Ambitions 2035' plan to attain the levels of performance and investment needed for the electric revolution," CEO Luc Remont said in the H1 report.

Post-Arenh, new nuclear

With electricity again "abundant" and "competitive" and expectations of weaker power prices long term both in France and throughout Europe, EDF was setting its sights on new commercial and regulatory arrangements beyond the ARENH mechanism covering output from its existing French reactor fleet to end-2025.

In France, it has already signed letters of intent representing over 10 TWh/year with industrial partners and nearly 2,200 contracts with four- to five-year horizons covering close to 13 TWh for 2028 and 7 TWh for 2029.

More broadly, EDF's 2035 strategy follows four investment pillars to help customers to reduce their carbon footprint, producing more low-carbon electricity, expanding the networks to address the challenges of the energy transition, and developing flexibility solutions to meet electricity system requirements.

This year alone, the company is planning for 20,000 new hires in France with focus on new skills from nuclear to other aspects of the energy transition.

Key focus for EDF's UK unit was completion of construction for the 3.3-GW Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant project with the two reactors set to come online between 2029 and 2031 with the next construction milestone in September when the reactor pressure vessel is to be lifted into the reactor of unit 1.

The HPC project company, still jointly owned with China's CGN, is investigating complementary alternative financing solutions in case of further budget overruns.

Meanwhile, pending a final investment decision, the Sizewell(opens in a new tab) C project is now fully financed by the UK Government, which consolidated its position as the majority shareholder of the project owning 76.1% as of end-June, while EDF owns 23.9%.

Global renewables player

Renewables and grids were another growth focus for EDF.

The company commissioned 1 GW in H1, lifting total wind and solar capacity to 15.3 GW.

In addition, EDF has 22.6 GW of hydro, mainly in France currently benefiting from the above average water supply.

Some 8.3 GW gross was under construction -- 1.9 GW onshore wind, 0.9 GW offshore wind and 5.5 GW solar.

Standout projects completed in H1 include the 500-MW Fecamp offshore wind farm in France, the 480-MW Serra do Serido onshore wind farm in Brazil and Chile's biggest solar farm 480-MW CEME 1.

New projects in development include the 1.5-GW Al Ajban in the UAE and the 4.5-GW Hydrom wind and solar project in Oman as well as plans for a 1-GW floating wind project offshore Sicily, it said.

In France, its Enedis network unit connected 2.5 GW new renewable capacity to the distribution network.

EDF is also the electricity supplier of the Paris Olympics, it describes as the the first Games directly connected to the power network. New hourly matching certificates guarantee 100% renewable electricity supply to the Games, EDF said.