Historic European nuclear generation lows could continue until 2050

Total European nuclear power generation in 2022 of 618 TWh and projected 2023 output of 615 TWh represent the lowest output levels in Europe since the mid-1980s, while historic lows are likely to continue for the rest of the 2020s and as far forward as 2050, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

European nuclear generation stood at 524 TWh in 1984, the last time it fell below 600 TWh. European nuclear generation rose steadily during the 1980s and 1990s as new reactors came online and was 917 TWh in 2000, falling to 892 TWh in 2010 as some nuclear units were retired in the UK and Germany, the data showed.

The European region, in the context of the data, comprised the 27 European Union member states, as well as Switzerland and the UK.

Katherine Follos and Sabrina Kernbichler, power analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said June 26 that the "closure of the 2 GW in Belgian capacity over the course of the 2022/2023 winter season and Germany's exit from nuclear power with the exit of its remaining 4 GW of capacity on April 15, 2023, will offset slowly recovering French nuclear generation."

European generation will continue to decline as reactors across the continent continue to retire while new construction efforts take years to get going, the analysts said.

Plans to "lift nuclear capacity in Czechia at Dukovany and for Poland to enter nuclear generation also are not expected to materialize until the next decade," the analysts added.

Poland has an ambitious nuclear construction program of up to 9 GW of new capacity, with the first unit expected to be operating by 2033. The Czech Republic also plans to construct a series of new units, starting with the 1,200-MW Dukovany-5.

In Belgium, the 445-MW Doel-3 was permanently shut Sep. 23, 2022, in accordance with Belgium's nuclear phaseout laws. Similarly, the 1-GW Tihange-2 was permanently closed January 31, 2023.

In Germany, the 1,400-MW Neckarwestheim-2, the 1,406-MW Emsland and the 1,485-MW Isar-2 were permanently shut April 15 in the final step in Germany's phaseout of nuclear power in reaction to the Fukushima I nuclear accident in March 2011.

France, meanwhile, saw record low nuclear production in the 2022-23 winter following a number of unit closures for unplanned maintenance outages related to checks on possible cracks in welds on piping in the secondary safety systems within the existing fleet.

Lowest output levels since 1980s

Yves Desbazeille, the director general of the NuclearEurope industry trade association, noted in an interview June 21 that current levels of nuclear power production in Europe were a "significant issue" for the industry. "Belgium and Germany are closing reactors that are still well within their technical lifetimes, there is not a technical reason for such closures," Desbazeille said.

"This is why we are emphasizing life extensions and prolonged operation of the existing fleet in France and elsewhere in Europe," he added.

Desbazeille called life extensions "clearly a no-regret option," noting that in France, the existing nuclear fleet "needs to operate into their fiftieth, sixtieth and seventieth years, this is essential to combat potential power supply gaps."

S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed that in 1985 nuclear generation totaled 629 TWh. Output in the mid and late 1980s was boosted by France and Sweden adding significant nuclear generation capacity in the 1980s. Many of these units are now reaching 40 years of operations, the end of their initial design life expectancies.

Desbazeille noted that the historic nuclear production lows in France of 2022 and 2023 would significantly ease later this year, and that the start of commercial operation at the Olkiluoto-3 EPR in Finland and Flamanville-3 EPR in northern France would also both help to increased Europe-wide nuclear output.

Follos and Kernbichler noted that the "conflict between Russia and Ukraine has heightened security of supply concerns and the EU's drive to meet climate agreements has increased the ambition for new nuclear, with governments increasing their support for the technology."

Large scale nuclear plant construction projects in the UK, such as the 3.2-GW Hinkley Point C, scheduled to start operation in 2027, and the 3.2-GW Sizewell C, on which a final investment decision is expected in 2025, are also progressing, the analysts noted.

Nuclear forecast to decline from 2025 to 2050

However, the "sheer scale of projects, technology, inflationary and supply chain constraints mean that progress is slow," the analysts said.

The analysts forecast that nuclear generation in Europe would be 598 TWh in 2024 and 605 TWh in 2025, falling then to 563 TWh in 2028 and 536 TWh in 2030. The forecasts include generation from Turkey's first nuclear plants starting in 2026. Nuclear generation could continue to decline, hitting 529 TWh in 2032 and 508 TWh in 2035 before rising slightly to 512 TWh in 2040 and then dropping sharply again to 455 TWh in 2050, the analysts said.

They said an expected high rate of closures in the existing nuclear fleet was the main reason for the forecast dramatic decline in nuclear output in Europe between 2025 and 2050, while also noting that nuclear plant construction in the region had a history of delays and false starts.

Additionally, while there are a very large number of small modular reactor developers in Europe, this technology has yet to be proven on a commercial basis. "Small scale nuclear has the potential to increase deployment at a quicker pace, but the technology is unproven and unlikely to materialize before the 2030s," the analysts said.