Arctic blast moves into eastern US as second arctic blast hits Pacific Northwest

The US is facing two arctic fronts on opposite coasts, challenging power grids on rising heating demand and driving up electricity prices to some of the highest levels since the 2021 winter storm that caused widespread power outages.

The winter storm that started last week is now battering the eastern and southern US, while another arctic front has hit the Pacific Northwest and will move into the Plains and Deep South by the end of the week.

"One more day of record breaking cold temperatures can be expected across much of the Rockies, Great Plains, and Midwest [Jan. 16] with wind chills below minus 30 extending into the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning," the US National Weather Service said early Jan. 16. "Fortunately, a brief reprieve from the frigid air is expected as the airmass moderates beginning [Jan. 17], leading to below average (but not brutally cold temperatures) in its wake."

However, the break will not last long as another surge of Arctic air reaches the Plains states and Deep South by Jan. 18-19, the weather service added.

There were over 100,000 customers without power across the US by mid-day Jan. 16, mostly in Oregon, Louisiana, Colorado, Texas and California, according to PowerOutage.us.

"Wind generation was relatively low in MISO and SPP causing those regions to rely on incremental coal and gas generation," said Morris Greenberg, senior manager with the low-carbon electricity team at S&P Global Commodity Insights. "MISO also imported energy from PJM and re-exported to SPP."

SPP region

The forecast of a second arctic front caused the Southwest Power Pool to extend its cold weather advisory by five days to 6 pm CT Jan. 21. The region is also under a conservative operations advisory through 9 pm CT Jan. 16 and the resource advisory through Jan. 18. The advisories were issued due to the forecast extreme cold temperatures, high load forecast and expectations for generation facility equipment failures.

"We do expect another blast of cold air moving into the weekend, but its effects aren't anticipated to be as impactful to reliability as what we've been over the past few days," SPP spokeswoman Meghan Sever said Jan. 16. "SPP continues to closely monitor conditions in our footprint. As conditions evolve, SPP may issue additional advisories and alerts to keep the lights on today and in the future."

A weather advisory is the first step above normal operations in SPP's grid conditions, followed by a resource advisory and conservation operations advisory. If needed, the next steps would be varying levels of an energy emergency alert. Advisories raise awareness, while energy emergency alerts indicate all available generators are being is dispatched to meet region-wide demand.

SPP's population-weighted temperatures averaged 5.6 degrees Fahrenheit Jan. 13-16, 84% lower than the normal average temperatures for those dates, according to CustomWeather data. Heating-degree days so far this month are 35% higher than last year. SPP is a regional transmission organization responsible for coordinating electric reliability for a 14-state region in the central US.

SPP forecast peakload to reach 45.8 GW Jan. 16, which would set a new January record. The current January peakload record is 43.385 GW. SPP's all-time winter peakload is 47.157 GW, which occurred during the December 2022 storm.

The freezing weather and increased load pushed up power prices.

SPP South Hub on-peak day-ahead locational marginal prices reached $329.89/MWh for Jan. 15, the highest seen since the February 2021 winter storm that marked the first time it had to declare conservative operations and direct power service interruptions. By early Jan. 16, South Hub on-peak day-ahead for Jan. 17 delivery were bid at $85/MWh and offered at $115/MWh on the Intercontinental Exchange.

"SPP is managing the grid for the duration of Winter Storm Gerri, and while there have been operational challenges, we have not directed controlled load interruptions," Sever said. "While load remains high, we have not set any new peak load or penetration records."

SPP's forecasted wind was low over the holiday weekend due to the extreme cold temperatures, but SPP was able to have imports available from neighboring regions, Sever said, adding SPP imported a record 6.8 GW Jan. 14, beating the previous import record set during the February 2021 winter storm "and illustrating how important interregional collaboration and interconnection are in fulfilling our mission."

MISO region

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator is under conservative operations through 10 pm ET Jan. 17 and a cold weather alert through 10 am ET Jan. 18.

"MISO has had sufficient generation available to meet demand at all times," MISO spokesman Brandon Morris said Jan. 16. "We are coordinating with our member utilities and neighboring grid operators to determine the specific risks associated with the sustained cold temperatures."

MISO set a new wind record of 25,650 on Jan.12, surpassing the previous peak from Dec. 9 by over 1 GW.

MISO forecast peakload to reach 106 GW Jan. 16. MISO's all-time winter power demand record is 109 GW reached on Jan. 6, 2017.

Indiana Hub on-peak day-ahead traded around $191.25/MWh for Jan. 17 delivery on ICE, as on-peak real-time Jan. 16 traded around $135/MWh.

Further south, the Tennessee Valley Authority issued a conservation request to customers for 6-10 am CT Jan. 17 with record demand expected in the Southeast, it said in a Jan. 16 statement. TVA's winter peakload record is 33.427 GW reached Dec. 23, 2022.

Northeast region

In the neighboring PJM Interconnection region, PJM West Hub on-peak day-ahead traded around $160.70/MWh on ICE, as on-peak real-time for Jan. 16 traded around $157.75/MWh.

"After producing widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain over the Mid-Deep South the last 24 hours, a quick moving upper-trough and associated coastal-low pressure area continues to spread moderate to heavy snowfall into the Mid-Atlantic this morning," the US National Weather Service said Jan. 16. "Widespread winter weather advisories blanket the Mid-Atlantic into New England, where minor to locally moderate winter weather impacts are possible today where an additional two to four inches can be expected through New York state."

New York Independent System Operator real-time power prices were slightly elevated in the New York City metropolitan area after power demand materialized above the forecast for most of Jan. 16. Power demand was around 21.233 GW around noon, above the forecast of 20.194 GW.

Real-time power prices in Zone J New York City were $250.70/MWh as of late afternoon and Zone K Long Island power prices were around $148/MWh, according to NYISO data.

Power prices in the ISO New England territory averaged $236.68/MWh by late afternoon when systemwide power demand was at 17.080 GW, slightly below the forecast of 17.330 GW, according to ISO New England data.

Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected in upper New England with up to eight inches expected through Jan. 17, according to the weather service. Heavy lake-effect snowfall may briefly subside Jan. 16, before renewing late this week with winter storm watches hoisted downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario in New York.

Northwest region

"Over the Pacific Northwest, offshore low pressure interacting with the stubborn cold Arctic airmass entrenched atop the region will lead to yet another episode of significant freezing rain beginning this morning [Jan. 16], which includes the Portland metropolitan area," the US National Weather Service said Jan. 16. "Ice storm warnings are in effect through [Jan. 17] morning as one quarter to a half inch of ice is expected. Portions of the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will also see significant impacts from this storm in the form of snow, with 15-28 inches possible."

Another wave of arcticle air is driving up power prices in the Northwest.

Mid-C on-peak day-ahead for Jan. 17 traded around $344.50/MWh on ICE, with off-peak around $209/MWh. In comparison, Mid-C on-peak day-ahead has averaged around $375/MWh so far this month, an increase of 144% year on year, according to pricing data from Platts, which is a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The storm than began Jan. 13, brought high winds, ice and snow to Portland General Electric's service area, causing widespread damage across the region.

"Tree limbs and debris brought down power lines and damaged other equipment," PGE spokesperson Marsha Sanchez said.

At peak, PGE had over 165,000 customers without power Jan. 13, Sanchez added. That number is down to around 21,000 customers as of Jan. 16 afternoon.