Mechanical recycling to meet 15% of global PE demand by 2050: Dow CEO

Mechanical recycling will meet 15% of global polyethylene demand by 2050, Dow CEO Jim Fitterling said Jan. 25.

The remaining 85% will be PE sourced from advanced or chemical recycling, bio-based feedstocks, low-carbon solutions and traditional fossil fuels, he said during the company's fourth-quarter earnings call.

"Our view is that both mechanical recycling and advanced recycling are going to continue to grow," Fitterling said. "There's going to be demand drivers to grow all of those segments."

PE demand in 2030 is estimated to be 150 million-175 million mt/year, and by 2050 is expected to grow to 250 million-300 million mt/year, according to the Dow investor presentation.

Dow said in November 2023 it would move ahead with its net-zero ethane cracker and PE complex in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. The project will decarbonize 20% of Dow's global ethylene capacity, the company said.

"I feel that over time, you're going to see more focus on low-carbon fossil approaches like we're doing with Alberta," Fitterling said Jan. 25. "So how can you make plastics from fossil fuels that have zero CO2 emissions? You're going to see focus on advanced recycling and mechanical recycling and all of the above, and we're just going to place bets in different regions by what the market demand dictates."

He said Dow has seen good uptake from customers and sees solid volume growth in the sector, though circular resin is more expensive than virgin material.

Platts last assessed recycled HDPE natural pellet at 74 cents/lb FOB Chicago Jan. 24, compared with 43.5 cents/lb US Gulf for virgin blowmolding grade HDPE.

PE produced via advanced recycling, bio-based polymers, low-carbon and traditional fossil fuels will use the same assets and result in identical products and performance, Fitterling said.

However, polymer derived in whole or in part from mechanical recycling has different performance characteristics, though the process is still circular and has a bias toward low carbon, he said.

According to the Recycling Partnership, only 1% of US film and flexible packaging is recycled.

In the US, Dow and waste handler WM are partners in a residential recycling project that Fitterling said will divert about 120,000 mt/year of low-density PE film from landfills. The project, which launched in November 2022, uses WM infrastructure to collect and sort LDPE film.