AGRICULTURE WEATHER WATCH: Dry weather drives crop activities in US

In the US, precipitation was mostly confined to the fringes across the deep south and from the Ohio valley into the northeast.

Western showers were scattered and generally caused only minor fieldwork delays while near- or above- normal temperatures prevailed nationwide for the second week in a row.

Temperatures broadly averaged at least 10 F above normal across the northern half of the Plains and the upper Midwest. Readings averaged more than 5 F in a much larger area -- stretching from the Great Basin and Intermountain West to the northern and central Plains and the Midwest, as well as portions of the southeast.

US

** Dry weather facilitated the harvest of summer crops and planting of winter wheat to reach near completion.

** The harvest of soybeans is completed, while corn harvest stood at 93% in the week ended Nov. 19, above the five-year average of 91%.

** Rainfall between 1 and 3 inches is forecast in the Atlantic states over the coming days, while a low-pressure system crossing the Midwest will gradually weaken and drift eastward.

** Northern and Central Rockies are expected to witness blankets of snow over the weekend, with most areas likely to experience optimal temperatures and minimal precipitation.

** The Mississippi Valley will receive some amount of precipitation in the next five days, alongside the NWS forecast of near- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation across much of the country until Nov. 30.

** The Mississippi River at Vicksburg recorded a gauge reading of 1.83 feet on Nov. 22, while the water level at Memphis dropped to minus 9.17 feet – both among the lowest levels for the month.

** Platts assessed CIF New Orleans Corn at $208.55/mt on Nov. 22, up $2.25/mt on the day, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.

Brazil

** Water level in the Rio Negro River basin reached 13.20 meters on Nov. 21, an increase from the Oct. 27 lowest-on-record level of 12.70 m but still in a concerning range, according to the Port of Manaus.

** Rainfall with accumulations greater than 80 mm are expected in the Amazonas, Acre, Rondonia and South Roraima over the coming week.

** In areas of the north and large parts of northeast, dry weather is forecast over the weekend, which will likely extend into the next week.

** In the central provinces, localized rain showers exceeding 50 mm will improve soil moisture and favor the sowing and development of first-corn crops.

** Sao Paulo is forecast to receive localized showers exceeding 50 mm, accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and thunderstorms.

** The southern parts of Brazil will see a reduction in the volume of rainfall over the coming week, resulting in more favorable conditions for the sowing, development, and management of summer crops.

** Platts, part of S&P Global, assessed Brazil Corn FOB Santos at $230.6/mt on Nov. 22, up 69 cents/mt from the previous assessment.

Argentina

** Heavy rain overspreading northern Argentina provided abundant moisture for germination of cotton and other summer crops, while sunny and cool weather is benefiting emerging corn and soybeans farther south.

** Rains are forecast in the short term for the core region, whereas frontal systems will cause significant cooling over the south of the Pampas region.

** Frontal systems are less likely to reach frost levels but expected to create undesirable conditions for the corn, soybean, and wheat crops.

** New rainfall is expected in the north of the GEA region in the coming week, with the likelihood of it extending to the southwest.

** Temperatures in the core region are expected to increase, reaching a maximum of 28 C to 30 C. In Cordoba, the temperatures may rise to 32 C.

** Soil moisture in the center and east of the GEA zone continues to improve but remains poor in the west and dry in the northwest. Rainfall accumulations between 100 mm and 180 mm are required to reach the optimal stage.

** Platts assessed Argentina Corn FOB Up River at $213.68/mt on Nov. 22, down 49 cents on the day, S&P Global data showed.

Australia

** Most parts of Australia, except coastal parts of New South Wales and Victoria, are likely to remain dry over the next two weeks, the country's Bureau of Meteorology said in a forecast Nov. 21.

** Western Australia is expected to see a dry weather during the next two weeks, the bureau said.

** Western Australia and New South Wales are key wheat suppliers and drier conditions are expected to help pace up wheat harvest.

** Temperatures are likely to rise across Western Australia and fall in parts of New South Wales, according to the bureau.

** Western Australia may see 3 C to 4 C above-normal temperatures in the next two weeks. Temperatures may fall by 2 C to 4 C in New South Wales during the next two weeks.

** The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics had forecast wheat harvest for the marketing year 2023-24 (October-September) at around 26.2 million mt, down 34% on the year, which is expected to weigh on exports.

** Platts, part of S&P Global, assessed FOB Australian Premium White wheat at $286/mt on Nov. 22, unchanged on the day.

EU

** Most parts of Europe are likely to see dry weather in the next two weeks, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather forecast showed Nov. 22.

** Most of France and Germany are likely to see scattered snows in the next two weeks, it said.

** Europe is also expected to see near-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, according to the agency.

** Scattered snowfall may lead to frosts and will likely weigh on wheat cultivation that's currently underway at key suppliers — France and Germany.

** The European Commission forecast in its August update that the EU cereal production in the marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) would be 269.8 million mt, against 274.1 million mt seen in the previous estimate.

** Platts assessed EU wheat with 11% protein content CPT Rouen at $244.75/mt on Nov. 22, down $1/mt on the day, S&P Global data showed.