USDA cuts MY 2024-25 global wheat export forecast to 214.67 mil mt

The US Department of Agriculture has reduced its global wheat export forecast by 1.2 million mt to 214.67 million mt for the marketing year 2024-2025 (June-May), according to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Nov. 8.

Exports are seen 3% lower year over year, the USDA said, based on expectations of reduced shipments from Turkey and Kazakhstan, the report said.

Wheat exports from Kazakhstan in MY 2024-25 are estimated at 10 million mt, down from 10.5 million mt seen in October, amid a rise in domestic feed demand, the report said.

Turkey's total wheat exports for MY 2024-25 are forecast at 7.5 million mt, down nearly 2.5 million mt from the previous year, with flour likely to represent the bulk of this total. The USDA said Turkey's wheat flour exports fell sharply from July through September as the country banned wheat imports over June 21-Oct. 15, forcing flour mills to draw down stocks and use domestic wheat to produce flour for re-exports.

Turkey's import restrictions have prompted a sharp decline in the country's flour exports so far in MY 2024-25 (July-June), which was down 41% at about 1 million mt in the first three months of the trade year compared with the corresponding year-ago period.

While Turkey has been forced to reduce its flour exports, Egypt has become a top supplier of wheat flour to markets in Africa and the Middle East.

Turkey is still expected to remain the top wheat flour exporter in MY 2024-25, despite competition from Egypt and import restrictions.

Global production to rise

The USDA has forecast global production to rise 650,000 mt to 794.73 million mt in MY 2024-25, with global wheat production seen 0.5% higher year over year, the report said.

The department said that higher production in Kazakhstan is expected to more than offset reductions in Argentina, Brazil, Russia and the EU.

"Kazakhstan's production is raised 2 million [mt] to 18 million [mt] on harvest results," the report said. "This is the third-largest crop on record for Kazakhstan."

The USDA has forecast global wheat ending stocks in MY 2024-25 at 257.57 million mt, compared with the 257.72 million mt estimated in the previous month. According to the USDA, global ending stocks are expected to be 3.3% lower year over year.

"Projected global ending stocks are lowered as decreases for Argentina, China and Brazil are not completely offset by increases for Kazakhstan and Turkey," the report said.

The USDA expects global wheat consumption in MY 2024-25 to rise to 803.41 million mt from 802.54 million mt seen in October and anticipates overall consumption to climb 0.8% year over year.

Major wheat trade for 2024-25