China's return to Australian wheat market sees muted price impact

After months of inactivity, China bought several cargoes of Australian wheat in late October, though the impact on prices was muted due to harvest pressure and months of anticipation of China’s return, multiple market sources said.

The traded wheat cargoes reportedly consisted of the Australian Premium White and Australian Standard White grades, with between three to six cargoes heard changing hands.

Further details surrounding the trades were not available at the time of writing.

“We were last told not to expect any movement from China till September, and it’s been weeks since then, so it was not surprising that they’ve booked something now,” said a trade source based in Victoria.

“They have been asking for indications for weeks now, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they bought Australian wheat any time soon,” another Melbourne-based grains trader said.

China has also been purchasing cargoes of Canadian milling wheat since October, with at least four cargoes heard traded in late October, market sources said.

“We heard reports of 10 cargoes of wheat traded last week, but there was no reaction from the domestic market at all,” said a trade source based in China. “APW stocks in the country are healthy, and ASW stocks are lower. At current price levels for ASW, it does incentivize imports.”

Platts assessed Australian Premium White and Australian Standard White wheat at $262/mt and $252/mt FOB Australia Nov. 1, respectively, both $3/mt lower on the week, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.

While China’s return to bulk wheat imports had long been touted as a bullish signal for prices and something that would stimulate the buying pace from regional buyers, which had been maintaining a hand-to-mouth coverage pace in the absence of strong buying from China, market sources said that Australian wheat prices have been steady to lower.

“The market is softer here with the harvest pressure, softer AUD [against the US dollar], and pressure from weakening Argentina offers and offshore futures,” said a grains trader in Australia.

“If China doesn’t buy as much wheat as they usually do in 2025, it’s not going to be bullish on prices, and regional buyers will continue to see no incentive in abandoning their hand-to-mouth strategy,” said a grains trader based in Western Australia.