Ukraine's UGA lowers 2024 grain harvest estimates on dry weather

Ukraine's grain union, Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), has lowered the country's grain and oilseed crop harvest estimate in 2024 to 74.6 million mt from 76.1 million mt projected earlier, it said May 27.

The cut comes following a reduction in planting area, particularly grains, and dry weather in several regions of eastern and southern Ukraine, the UGA said.

Corn crop harvest is projected at 25.5 million mt and wheat at 19.1 million mt, down from the previous forecast of 26.3 million mt and 20 million mt.

In oilseeds, the sunflower harvest will be at 13.7 million mt, rapeseed at 4.3 million mt and soybean at 5.5 million mt, the agency said.

"The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions of the last 5 years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in the spring and summer may lead to adjustments," the association said.

April and May rains were sharply below normal, which worsened grain crop conditions in Ukraine, according to the UGA.

Recent frosts in eastern parts of Ukraine impacted grain crops to some extent, however, the damage was not significant, according to Ukraine's agriculture forecast department.

The department stated that recent frosts in northern and central Ukraine did not cause significant damage to grain and oilseed crops as the temperature did not drop enough. The damage to early seedlings of corn and sunflower was confined to the area.

The ministry's 2024 grains and oilseeds harvest forecast remains at 74 million mt, as forecasted on April 17.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated Ukraine's corn production at 28.1 million mt and wheat at 22.5 million mt in 2024-25 marketing year (July-June).

Ukraine's grains and oilseeds exports are seen at 43.5 million mt, slightly down from 43.7 million mt estimated in March, the UGA said.

The association estimated corn and wheat exports at 20.5 million mt and 13 million mt, respectively, in 2024-25, unchanged from the previous estimate.

Commodity Insights estimated Ukraine's MY 2024-25 corn exports at 23 million mt and wheat at 14.5 million mt.

Ukraine's rapeseed exports were seen at 3.4 million mt, soybeans at 4 million mt sunflower at 250,000 mt in 2024-25, according to UGA.