May frosts damage Russian grain crops, hits wheat harvest

Unseasonal May frosts in Russia's southern cropping regions have significantly damaged winter grain crops, resulting in potentially lower harvest in marketing year 2023-24 (July -June).

Russian agricultural consultancy the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) May 13, cut its MY 2023-24 wheat crop forecast to 86 million mt from 91 million mt in early May. The nation's overall grain crop forecast was also cut, to 135 million mt from 142 million mt.

Meanwhile, SovEcon, a Black Sea agricultural market research firm, has also cut its MY 2023-24 wheat harvest forecast to 85.7 million mt from 89.6 million mt projected in early May.

The revision reflected a decrease in the pre-harvest wheat area by 0.3 million hectares to 29.2 million hectares, and a reduced yield forecast, which on average has declined from 3.03 mt/hectares to 2.93 mt/hectares, SovEcon said.

The southern part of Russia, which grows more than 30% of the country's annual wheat crop, has been experiencing extreme weather events in recent weeks, causing damage to its wheat and rapeseed crops.

In April, Russia faced a drought-like situation because of record heat, causing severe damage to winter crops due to lack of moisture. That was followed by cold weather, leading to frosts which further deteriorated crop conditions. That has fueled supply concerns in the global market as Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world.

In the meantime, certain areas in the southern Russia did experience scattered rainfall, which was expected to ease dryness, however, it was sporadic, and some areas even remained dry.

"The southern regions are not in the best shape either. The situation there is different. In some places there was a streak of rain, in others there was no rain," IKAR General Director Dmitry Rylko said.

"In recent months, weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have gradually deteriorated for the new wheat crop. This situation intensified in early May when, instead of the much-needed rain, Russian winter wheat experienced a severe cold snap, with minimum temperatures reaching levels not seen in decades," said Andrey Sizov, Managing Director of SovEcon said.

Last week, three of central Russia's key grain-growing areas -- Lipetsk, Voronezh and Tambov -- declared a state of emergency, citing May frosts that have severely damaged crops and will reduce the harvest.

"May frosts and snowfalls are definitely an emergency situation for Russian farmers. It can seriously affect agricultural crops, especially those in the active phase of vegetation, including winter crops," said Eduard Zernin, chair of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters.

Snowfall and cold weather in May caused the most damage in southern and central Russia, the key grain producing regions, where, by this time, the vegetation period has usually already started, Zernin said.

"Grain crops are usually more resistant to frosts, but heavy snowfalls can physically damage seedlings."

According to SovEcon, Russian farmers have lost 3.9 million mt of wheat, valued at around 45 billion rubles ($490 million) as a result of frost.

Crop damage fuels supply concerns

Winter crop damage caused due to cold spell and frosts will likely hit the grain export potential of Russia in MY 2023-24.

However, despite the losses, the country would have more than enough food and will remain the global leader in wheat supplies, the Ministry of Agriculture said.

IKAR recently cut Russia's total grain exports forecast to 59.5 million mt from 64.5 million mt in early May. Wheat exports were projected lower at 47 million mt from 50.5 million mt predicted earlier. Nevertheless, Russia will remain the leading supplier of wheat in the global market, Rylko said.

Even in this situation, Russia will have large volumes of grain left for export and it will certainly be enough for the domestic market as the country's consumption is about 85 million mt of grain, he said.

Damaged crops to be replanted

Russian farmers will have replant damaged crops on 500,000 hectares land, agriculture minister Oksana Luth said while answering questions from deputies.

Regional agricultural authorities are working to assess the extent of damage from frost, and the damaged crops will be replanted; all the necessary resources are available for this, the ministry of agriculture reported on May 9.

"So far, the preliminary information is that everything needs to be reseeded on 500,000 hectares," Luth said.

"We have the seeds. The limits that are provided for sowing, including for the upcoming reseeding, are ample. We will keep the situation under control. If it turns out there is not enough then we will find opportunities to finance all those who need it," she said.