CPC-Med Suezmax rate hits 13-month high on April volumes, sparse tonnage

Freight rates for Suezmax voyages loading at Novorossiisk's Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal and discharging in the Mediterranean firmed to their highest level in over a year amid a lengthy April CPC crude loading program, tight tonnage in the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions and an uptick in Far East demand.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed freight on the 135,000 mt CPC-Med route at $13.72/mt on March 12, its highest level since Feb. 19, 2024.

At least six CPC-Med fixtures were done March 12, with the latest one settled at w120. This represented a w20 jump from where Platts had assessed the value for the route March 11.

Market sources attributed the firmness to higher monthly volumes for CPC loadings after increased production from an expansion of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field – by far the largest contributor to the CPC Blend -- began to come online at the end of January. By the second quarter, the scheduled ramp-up is expected to have increased capacity by 260,000 b/d to almost 960,000 b/d – approximately the equivalent of one Suezmax cargo per day.

The April loading program for CPC will include 38 Suezmax cargoes, with 13 in the first decade, 12 in the second decade and 13 in the final decade, according to shipbroking sources. This would be a slight decrease from the 41 Suezmax cargoes done in the March program, but a significant increase from historical levels, with average CPC Suezmax loadings standing at 22 shipments per month in 2024, 27 per month in 2023 and 23 in 2022, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab) data.

Despite initial concerns that a Ukrainian drone attack Feb. 17 on the Kropotkin pumping station along the CPC pipeline running through southern Russia would impede loadings at the CPC terminal, multiple shipbroking sources said there has been limited impact on the tanker market so far.

"They are still pumping lots in the pipeline - maybe not as much as they want, but volumes are still big," a Middle East-based shipbroker said.

"I don't think the pipeline disruption has affected volumes, and although March was supposed to be a one-off as Kazakhstan was meant to cut production [in line with OPEC+ quotas], this hasn't proven to be the case so far," a Europe-based shipbroker said.

"We're also seeing increased ton-miles, with 9 million barrels heading East in March, and 3 million for April so far -- this stretches the tonnage list."

Further West, the impact of a firmer Black Sea market on rates for the key West Africa-UK Continent and US Gulf-Continent Suezmax routes has so far been limited, with sources noting that Atlantic-basin demand levels have been insufficient for owners with ships in position to capitalize on the pull of tonnage toward the Black Sea.

Platts last assessed freight on the 130,000 mt WAF-UKC route at $16.64/mt, up 43 cents/mt on the day, and freight on the 145,000 mt USGC-UKC route unchanged on the day at $15.93/mt.