Russian crude exports rise to six-month high as turnarounds linger

Russian oil exports rose in October with crude flows hitting a six-month high, according to tanker tracking data, as delayed and extended turnarounds at several refineries dragged on domestic processing capacity.

Crude shipments from Russian ports averaged 3.74 million b/d in October, up 240,000 b/d or 7% from September levels and the third monthly rise from an eleven-month low of 3.24 million b/d in July, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

The biggest increase in crude exports during October was to Turkish refiners, with flows to the country's ports surging by 144,000 b/d, or 84%, month on month to a four-month high of 316,000 b/d. Turkey's 212,000 b/d Star refinery in western Turkey restarted at the end of October, following planned maintenance that started Sept. 5. India, Russia's biggest crude buyer, imported 1.74 million b/d of mainly Urals crude, the data shows, down 90,000 b/d on the month but still representing almost 40% of total arrivals in October.

Urals crude exports from Russia's Baltic ports of Primorsk saw the biggest month-on-month increase while Urals flows from Novorossisk on the Black Sea and ESPO crude from Kozmino also rose, the data shows, offsetting a slip in exports from Ust-Luga.

More than 1 million b/d of Russian refining capacity has been idled for seasonal turnarounds since mid-September, allowing for greater export availability, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. At the end of October, several Russian refineries continued to undergo turnarounds despite the end of the main refinery maintenance season. Refinery maintenance is expected to decline significantly in the coming weeks, however.

The rising crude exports in October came as differentials for Russia’s flagship Urals crude remained stable, being valued around $12.25/b discount to Dated Brent through the month. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Urals on a FOB Primorsk basis at a $12.15/b discount to Dated Brent on Nov. 4, up from a post-Ukraine invasion low of $11.9/b on Aug. 7.

Product exports

Russian oil product exports slipped month on month in October, according to CAS data, with Moscow's ongoing gasoline export ban still limiting the export recovery to post-war highs of 3 million b/d seen in 2023.

Seaborne Russian export loadings of diesel, fuel oil, naphtha and other refined products average 2.14 million b/d the month, according to the data, down 3% or 76,000 b/d from September levels.

A 51,000 b/d month-on-month slump in diesel exports led the decline in product exports, the data shows, with fuel oil exports also falling by 42,000 b/d on September. The falls were partially offset by higher exports of gasoline, VGO and naphtha.

The frequency of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries had dropped in recent months, with a Sept. 1 attack on Gazprom Neft’s Moscow refinery where repair works have already been completed. No damage was reported to Russian oil reserves since a depot strike in Belgorod on Sept. 8.

But a Nov. 1 drone attack on Rosneft's Ufa refinery, which officials say failed to cause damage, sparked speculation that Ukraine could resume targeting refining assets.

Although Russia's gasoline exports remain restricted, there is growing speculation that its export ban may be lifted before the announced end date of Dec. 31.