Trump meets with US oil executives amid energy policy shifts, tariff uncertainty

US President Donald Trump met with oil and gas executives at the White House on March 19 afternoon as the Trump administration continued its attempts to reorient US energy policy toward deregulation, higher production and lower prices.

The executives, affiliated with the executive committee of the American Petroleum Industry, the oil and gas industry's largest lobbying group, were there to discuss "how American oil and natural gas are driving economic growth, strengthening our national security and supporting consumers," API spokesperson Bethany Williams said in a statement before the meeting.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, the vice chair of Trump's newly created National Energy Dominance Council, and Doug Burgum, US Interior Secretary and chair of the council, also attended.

Burgum and Wright have been vocal proponents of Trump's "energy dominance" agenda since their appointment to his Cabinet this year. That agenda largely dovetails with the API's five-point policy road map, released in the fall, that asked the administration to reduce electric-vehicle-oriented tailpipe emissions standards, approve LNG export terminals, make more federal lands and waters available for exploration and drilling, and accelerate approvals for infrastructure projects, among other priorities.

At a discussion during the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston on March 12, Burgum pledged to streamline the process for companies to produce on federal lands and waters, hold more lease sales than the Biden administration, and find "redundancies" in regulatory frameworks in an attempt to lower costs for producers leasing from the US government by as much as 10% per barrel.

Also speaking at the conference, Wright promised a sea change in the speed and ease of permitting for oil and gas companies.

"The Trump administration's goal is exactly the opposite (of former US President Joe Biden's approach) -- to encourage capital investment, make it easier to build infrastructure, therefore lower the cost of people making decisions to drill oil and gas wells, and therefore grow supply," Wright said at CERAWeek March 10. "More supply will lead to lower prices."

In addition to calling for more production of US crude, which Trump has referred to as "liquid gold," he has specifically prioritized increased development and production in Alaska. On his first day in office, he signed an executive order that directed relevant agency heads to direct regulatory policy to expedite permitting and "efficiently and effectively maximize the development and production of the natural resources" in the state.

"During the last administration, there were far more restrictions on Alaska producing oil, gas and minerals than there were on Iran," Wright said on March 10. "We've sanctioned Alaska more than we've sanctioned Iran. So that, of course, is just nuts."

Climate advocates criticized the meeting.

"Trump pressured oil executives to give $1 billion to his campaign in exchange for preferential treatment for the industry, and it would seem that the quid pro quo is paying off," said Mahyar Sorour, director at the Sierra Club, in a statement.

Market imperatives

Whether the US industry will increase production in line with Trump's goals may rely less on access to federal lands and waters or expedited permitting than market realities.

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts expect US oil production to rise to 13.9 million b/d in December 2026 from 13.5 million b/d in January 2025. In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration forecast declining Brent and WTI prices into late 2025 and 2026, partly due to increased production from OPEC+.

"This administration is working hard on it every single day to increase our energy production right here in the United States of America," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press briefing on March 19.

In recent years, US upstream producers have reduced their oil and gas production growth rates because commodity prices have been high and stable enough to yield adequate cash flows to amply reward shareholders, fund their capital programs and make acquisitions without overtaxing their balance sheets.

Most E&P companies are increasing production at yearly rates below 10%, compared with 0%-5% a few years ago.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth—who sits on the API executive committee and was scheduled to appear at the White House meeting on March 19—said on March 10 that the US needs "durable" energy policy and legislation to ensure companies have regulatory certainty beyond the length of any one presidential term.

"Swinging from one extreme to the other is not the right policy approach," Wirth said at CERAWeek.

Even in the friendliest policy climate, companies may still not choose to produce more barrels, Wirth said.

"Chasing growth for growth's sake has not proven to be particularly successful for our industry," Wirth said. "At some point, you've grown enough that you should start to move toward a plateau, and you should generate more free cash flow rather than just more barrels."

On March 13, Continental Resources CEO Harold Hamm said that for many US producers, higher prices are needed to encourage production.

"There are a lot of fields that are getting to the point that's real tough to keep that cost of supply down," Hamm told Bloomberg Television on March 13. At $50/b, Hamm said, "you're below the point where you're going to 'drill, baby, drill.'"

Tariff concerns

Perhaps the lone area of significant disagreement between Trump and energy executives is Trump's enthusiasm for tariffs, which API has often, if gently, pushed back against.

Trump has vowed new tariffs on 25% of all goods from Canada and Mexico, with a 10% carveout for Canadian energy imports to the US, now set to take effect on April 2 after earlier one-month delays in implementation. US imports of Mexican crude averaged 451,000 b/d in December, while US imports of Canadian crude averaged 4.23 million b/d, according to the US EIA. Canada also exports refined products to the US, primarily the US Atlantic Coast.

On March 12, the White House imposed a 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum, and on April 2, it is planning to unveil a global reciprocal tariff plan designed to raise duties on all goods sold into the US to the same levels trading partners impose on equivalent US products.

"Oil and gas is one area where free trade really has worked," API CEO Mike Sommers said on the sidelines of a United States Energy Association event in January. "We import a lot of oil from both Mexico and Canada, and we refine it here in the most sophisticated refinery system in the world. We're going to continue to work with the Trump administration on this so they understand how important it is that we continue those trade relationships."

He pledged to continue his attempts to convince the Trump administration that energy should be exempt from tariffs. On Feb. 1, when the Canada and Mexico tariffs briefly went into effect and included energy, Sommers released a statement noting that "energy markets are highly integrated" and promising to continue working on the issue.