UK commissions study into latest scientific evidence around shale gas

The UK government said April 5 that it had commissioned a new study into the latest scientific evidence around shale gas extraction, saying it was "right" to keep all possible energy production means on the table following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The UK put in place a moratorium on fracking in England in November 2019 after an analysis of the environmental impact of work at Cuadrilla Resources' site at Preston New Road.

Cuadrilla was forced to suspend work at the site after a magnitude 2.9 tremor occurred in August 2019.

"The government has today commissioned the British Geological Survey to advise on the latest scientific evidence around shale gas extraction," the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said in a statement.

BEIS stressed that the new study did not mean a change in policy on fracking, but said it would allow an assessment to see if progress had been made in the scientific understanding that underpins government policy.

This, it said, would allow ministers to consider "next steps."

A report is expected before the end of June 2022.

With gas prices having hit record highs, there are growing calls for the UK to reconsider its position on shale gas.

The NBP front-month price hit a record high of 503 p/th (Eur206.54/MWh, $65.85/MMBtu) on March 8, according to Platts price assessments by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

That is more than 1,125% higher than the same assessment in 2021 of just 41.4 p/th.

Near-term prices

BEIS stressed that shale gas extraction was not the solution to near-term price issues.

But, it said, it was "right that all possible energy generation and production methods are kept on the table following the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by President Putin's regime."

Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said the UK had always been -- and would always be -- guided by the science on shale gas.

"It remains the case that fracking in England would take years of exploration and development before commercial quantities of gas could be produced for the market, and would certainly have no effect on prices in the near term," Kwarteng said.

"However, there will continue to be an ongoing demand for oil and gas over the coming decades as we transition to cheap renewable energy and new nuclear power," he said.

"In light of Putin's criminal invasion of Ukraine, it is absolutely right that we explore all possible domestic energy sources."

Kwarteng said that, unless the latest scientific evidence demonstrated that shale gas extraction was safe, sustainable and of minimal disturbance to those living and working nearby, "the pause in England will remain in place."

BGS study

The BGS has been asked to investigate a number of areas around shale gas developments.

They include whether there have been new developments in the science of fracking, and in particular whether there are new techniques in use that could reduce the risk and magnitude of seismic events.

It will also look into whether the current threshold for seismic events is still "correct" compared with the seismicity caused by other forms of underground energy production, such as geothermal, coal mining, or surface activities such as construction.

It will also look at whether there are other sites, outside of Lancashire, that could be at a lower risk of seismic activity.

"In commissioning this work, the government is clear that this should be a desk-based exercise by the BGS, and so no drilling of any further test wells or seismic monitoring will take place," BEIS said.

It is estimated that the northern Bowland Shale gas formation alone holds as much as 37.6 Tcm of shale gas. Just 10% of that volume could meet UK gas needs for 50 years, Cuadrilla said last month.

However, several academic studies have suggested the true resource is much lower.

In 2019, research from Nottingham University said resources within the Bowland Shale formation could be up to five times lower than previous estimates suggested.

The research, supported by the BGS, said economically recoverable reserves of Bowland shale gas could be less than 10 years of current UK gas consumption -- implying a ceiling of around 800 Bcm.

Industry reaction

The UK shale gas industry welcomed the announcement from BEIS. "We have always maintained that we can operate safely and in an environmentally responsible manner," Charles McAllister, policy manager at industry group UK Onshore Oil and Gas, said.

"Developing UK shale gas resources can reduce gas prices and reduce our carbon footprint by replacing imports," McAllister said. "With the right government support, our operators can produce significant volumes of gas quickly," he said.

"Should the government support our position following the review, we will begin what should have continued years ago. We look forward to positive, objective, and constructive engagement with the government."

Shale gas developer IGas said it was a "significant" development. "With government support to rapidly accelerate the development of this strategic national resource, the IGas board believes it can make this vital, indigenous supply of energy available to British consumers and businesses in a short timeframe," Stephen Bowler, CEO at IGas Energy, said.

Before the moratorium was put in place, IGas in September 2019 had said it wanted to start planning a pilot development at its Springs Road shale gas site in central England after a well drilled indicated the presence of a "world-class resource."