Norwegian gas supplies to Europe, UK remain robust in March

Norway's pipeline gas exports to continental Europe and the UK remained robust in March, with flows averaging 313 million cu m/d, an analysis of S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed April 4.

Total deliveries last month amounted to 9.71 Bcm -- higher than the five-year average for the month of 9.65 Bcm.

But exports were down on the 9.94 Bcm supplied in March 2022 and also lower than average flows in February 2023 of 321 million cu m/d, the data showed.

Norway has pledged to do what it can to ensure stable gas deliveries to Europe to help offset lost Russian supplies, and exports have been resilient for much of the winter, with only limited unplanned outages.

In March, however, there was a series of planned works at some key gas assets that kept a lid on total production, while unplanned outages also impacted output at the Kvitebjorn and Gullfaks fields.

April is likely to see a much lower production rate in Norway as seasonal maintenance is set to begin in earnest, removing up to 100 million cu m/d of capacity on certain days mid-month, according to Gassco data.

Norwegian gas production is, however, set for a boost toward the end of April with the expected return of the Wintershall Dea-operated Dvalin field, with its 9 million cu m/d of technical capacity.

According to Gassco data, Dvalin is scheduled to resume production on April 29, while Wintershall Dea itself has said production will start in Q2.

The field is set to resume production at a rate of 4.5 million cu m/d before ramping up to capacity on May 7.

Dvalin briefly restarted on Feb. 9 but was shut in again on Feb. 15 after technical problems with the choke valves in the Christmas trees were experienced.

Dvalin had already been shut in for more than two years after flow tests in late 2020 showed first gas from the field contained mercury levels exceeding the maximum amount allowed in the system.

Biggest supplier

Norway is now Europe's biggest single gas supply source after Russian exports were sharply curtailed through 2022.

Total Norwegian gas output reached 122 Bcm last year with production set to remain flat in 2023 before hitting a new peak of 122.5 Bcm in 2025, according to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD).

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said March 17 that Norway was "taking steps" to maintain a high level of gas production for the next five years and would remain a reliable gas supplier amid the ongoing energy crisis.

According to the NPD, Norway continues to enjoy a "high degree" of operational stability.

Norwegian gas producers were also incentivized to maximize exports through 2022 on the back of record European gas prices.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the benchmark Dutch TTF month-ahead price at an all-time high of Eur319.98/MWh on Aug. 26, 2022.

Prices have weakened since on the back of healthy storage levels throughout most of Europe and demand curtailments but remain historically high, with Platts assessing the TTF month-ahead price on April 3 at Eur50.45/MWh.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said March 17 that energy from Norway had always been a "cornerstone" of the EU's energy supply.

"I am impressed by the significant increase in gas deliveries to the EU and I am pleased to hear that Norway will maintain these high levels," von der Leyen said.

Polish imports

Norwegian piped gas flows have traditionally landed at terminals in the UK, Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany.

However, since the start of November gas has also been entering the Danish grid at Nybro as part of the 10 Bcm/year Baltic Pipe project to Poland, which reached its full design capacity on Nov. 30.

According to S&P Global data, a total of 0.65 Bcm flowed into Nybro in March, or an average of 21 million cu m/d.

Flows in Baltic Pipe take from Norwegian gas exports to the other landed terminals, with diversions away from France especially notable since December.

Meanwhile, Norwegian deliveries to Germany remain high as it looks to replace lost Russian gas. In March, supply to Germany totaled 3.51 Bcm, helping it to maintain very high storage levels of 64%.