Serbia’s government grapples with intense opposition to Rio Tinto’s planned lithium project

The Serbian government is facing immense political pressure surrounding its decision to allow Rio Tinto to develop its controversial Jadar lithium project in western Serbia, several observers with detailed knowledge of the issue have told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Jadar has been touted as one of the largest greenfield lithium projects in the world with an anticipated peak capacity of 58,000 mt/year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, equivalent to around 20% of EU annual demand by 2028 as forecast by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The project is considered crucial to strengthening Europe’s lithium supply in line with the objectives of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, which requires that EU industry source at least 10% of its mined mineral requirements from within the bloc.

However, Rio Tinto’s plans for Jadar have drawn fierce criticism from Serbia’s political opposition, who argue the project will cause permanent environmental damage while offering little apparent benefit to the country.

The issue has also sparked widespread protests, with tens of thousands taking to the streets of Belgrade in August to voice their opposition.

According to Mikhail Korostikov, visiting fellow at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, the strength of opposition to Jadar has piled pressure on Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic following his decision to reinstate a spatial planning license for the project on July 16.

The decision was made after Serbia's constitutional court ruled July 12 that the previous government had exceeded its authority when it revoked licenses for the $2.4 billion project in January 2022.

Korostikov said the issue has been effectively politicized by the Serbia Against Violence opposition alliance, or SPN, eager to “land a blow” against Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party.

In addition to environmental concerns, opposition to the project has also coalesced around growing skepticism of Serbia’s accession to EU membership, which Vucic has described as the top priority for his government following his controversial election victory in December 2023.

On July 19, Serbia and the EU signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on sustainable raw materials, battery supply chains and electric vehicles at a summit in Belgrade attended by European Commission for the European green deal Maros Sefcovic and German chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In response, the Serbian opposition has sought to portray Vucic as “a lapdog of Brussels, intent on transforming Serbia into a colony of the European Union,” Korostikov said.

“It has subsequently become impossible to find anyone willing to engage in a reasonable conversation about the merits of the project."

That perspective was echoed by the director of the KU Leuven Institute for sustainable metals and minerals, Peter-Tom Jones, who visited Serbia in September while filming for the upcoming documentary, “Europe’s Lithium Paradox.”

During his time in the area surrounding the project site, Jones said they were repeatedly engaged by the same opposition figures and prevented from speaking with people from the local community.

“Local opposition to the project was confined to three or four people engaged in full-time opposition,” he said, adding that others were unwilling to discuss the project.

Jones said that Serbians opposed to the project employed highly emotive language referencing the history of Serbia and describing themselves as being “at war with Rio Tinto”.

“Those expressing opposition to the project constantly refer to the imagery of past wars and putting their bodies on the line,” he said. “They say that they will physically attack the mine site if they have to, and I have no doubt that they will.”

According to Jones, nationwide opposition to the project is made up of "a complex and diverse collection of bedfellows," including the Serbian political opposition, pro-Russian Serbian nationalistsand environmental activists.

“There may be some legitimate concerns surrounding the potential environmental impacts of the project but all of it is based on disinformation circulated by the opposition,” he said.

Falsehoods surrounding the project have achieved widespread acceptance, having been effectively propagated by Serbia’s highly concentrated media, which regularly promotes anti-western attitudes alongside a pro-Russian narrative, Jones said.

Rio Tinto still committed to Jadar

Despite the ongoing opposition, Rio Tinto is continuing to advance the project, announcing on Sept. 17 that it had filed a request to establish the scope and content of the EIA for underground mining at Jadar.

The company has up to 12 months to complete and submit the study through a standardized procedure, which includes public review.

Rio Tinto has previously denounced "a broad misinformation campaign based on defamatory elements" advancing "unsubstantiated claims" that the project would harm water resources, soil, biodiversity, air quality and human health.

In third-quarter production results released Oct. 16, the company reaffirmed its commitment to the project.

“We continue to believe that the Jadar project has the potential to be a world-class lithium-borates asset that could act as a catalyst for the development of other industries and thousands of jobs for current and future generations in Serbia,” it said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate at $10,150/mt on a CIF Europe basis on Oct. 29, down 56% since prices were first assessed on Oct. 16.

Battery-grade lithium hydroxide was assessed at Yuan 9,750/mt CIF on Oct. 29, down 60% since Oct. 16.