Japan Coast Guard mulls evacuation, no-entry advisories ahead of Typhoon Shanshan

The Japan Coast Guard is considering whether to impose evacuation and no-entry advisories for large ships, including LNG carriers, in Osaka Bay, Seto Naikai and Ise Bay from Aug. 26, ahead of the approach of Typhoon Shanshan, JCG officials told S&P Global Commodity Insights Aug. 23.

The 4th, 5th and 6th regional JCG headquarters will consider whether to impose the advisories from Aug. 26 after final consideration over the weekend of Aug. 24-25, the JCG officials added.

The advisories will be imposed 24 hours ahead of the designated storm zone entering the affected area, with maximum sustained wind speed near to its center projected at 40 m/second.

With Typhoon Shanshan's likely arrival Aug. 27, the JCG would impose the advisories Aug. 26, should the typhoon maintain its strength and direction as forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the officials said.

Typhoon Shanshan is currently heading north, with a central pressure of 985 hPA and maximum sustained wind speed near its center of 30 m/s, according to the JMA's outlook, issued at 0345 pm local time (0645 GMT) Aug. 23. It is forecast to reach near to the Ogasawara Islands at 3pm Aug. 24, with a central pressure of 975 hPA and maximum sustained wind speed near center at 35 m/s, according to the JMA.

Last advisory

The JCG last issued an advisory less than two weeks ago, for Tokyo Bay on Aug. 14, ahead of the approach of Typhoon Ampil.

The last advisories led JERA, Japan's largest power generation company, to impose fuel restrictions shutting down up to 11.11 GW of gas-fired power generation capacity in Tokyo Bay over Aug. 16-17.

JERA's fuel restrictions-led capacity outage followed the shutdown of 1.88 GW on Aug. 16 and 9.24 GW on Aug. 17 as a result of weather and oceanic phenomena, the company said in filings to the Hatsuden Joho Kokai System.

Asked to comment on any potential response from JERA with regard to adjusting the LNG shipping schedules for its thermal power plants in central Japan as a result of Typhoon Shanshan, a company spokesperson has yet to respond to comment.

Separately, Kansai Electric has yet to change its schedules to receive LNG carriers at is power plants in western Japan as a result of the approach of Typhoon Shanshan, a company spokesperson said, adding that it will respond as necessary.

LNG inventory

JCG's looming advisories ahead of Typhoon Shanshan could disrupt the LNG delivery schedules at power plants, aimed at replenishing LNG inventory, particularly in western and central Japan, where there has been robust power demand in recent days, with maximum temperatures of around 35-37 degrees Celsius.

Japan's LNG stocks held by major utilities retreated 3% on the week to 1.92 million metric tons as of Aug. 18, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Aug. 21.

The stocks were last lower at 1.91 MMt on Aug. 4, the lowest level in 16 weeks.

METI does not have data for the comparable week in 2023. However, LNG inventory stood at 1.72 MMt at the end of August 2023, and the five-year average was 2.02 MMt for the end of August.