The peak power load of China Southern Power Grid (CSPG) hit a record high of 238 GW on July 10, mainly driven by the recent hot weather and improved economic activity, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) said late July 11.
Peak power demand is expected to result in higher coal and natural gas demand, even though a large portion of demand growth is being met by a surge in renewables supply. A higher peak pushes up power prices, requires baseload fuels like coal to be maximized, and incentivizes mid-to-peaking plants like gas-fired power generation to boost output.
There are two main power grids in China -- the CSPG, which includes the southern provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan, and the larger State Power Grid, which covers the rest of the country.
The power load in China's five southern provinces served by the CSPG has grown rapidly since the beginning of this year, with the power load of 21 cities in the region hitting a record high, the SASAC said.
The peak power load in Guangdong, the main manufacturing hub and the largest power consuming region of China, hit a record high for two consecutive days from July 9 to July 10, reaching 148 GW and 149 GW, respectively, the SASAC said. It said the peak power load in cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Dongguan in the Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have exceeded 20 GW.
Southern China has experienced continued hot weather since July 3, with temperatures rising to above 35 C in some regions that has driven up the power load, China Electricity Council (CEC) said July 10.
The power load in Guangdong's grid system normally increases 1 GW-3 GW for every 1 degree rise in temperature between 23 C and 30 C, and by 3 GW-4.5 GW for every 1 degree above 30 C, according to CSPG.
In addition, "new quality productive forces" -- a new slogan put forward by President Xi Jinping that refers to productivity led by technological innovation -- has continued to spur China's demand for power this year, CEC said.
Power consumption from industries classified as "new quality productive forces" increased by 34.2% year on year over January-June, with the growth rate remaining above 20% for 18 consecutive months, CEC added.
Power demand in the five southern provinces will maintain rapid growth, with peak power load expected to reach 255 GW during the peak summer season this year, rising 8.9% year on year, CEC said, citing a forecast from CSPG.
China's overall peak power load is expected to reach around 1,450 GW in 2024, increasing by 100 GW from 2023, according to a forecast released by CEC in April this year.
Renewables surge
Renewable power, particularly wind and solar power, have played a significant role in ensuring power supply in southern China, the SASAC said.
The cumulative installed capacity of renewable power in southern China exceeded 150 GW as of end-June, making it the largest power source in the region, the SASAC said, adding that the region's renewable power generation volume reached 120.5 TWh in the first half of this year, surging 35% year on year.
Renewable power generation volume in southern China is expected to reach 53.1 TWh during the peak summer period this year (typically June-Sept), gaining 11.8 TWh from the previous year, the SASAC said, quoting to an executive from the Southern Power Grid.
With the rapid development of non-fossil energy such as solar and wind power, the newly added installed capacity of power generation in China is expected to exceed 300 GW in 2024, CEC said in the April forecast. China added close to 370 GW of gross generation capacity in 2023, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Overall, power supply in southern China remained stable, supported by sufficient supply of renewable power, gas power, hydropower and coal power, according to market sources.
As of July 5, ten gas-fired power units had been put into operation in Guangdong, with a total installed capacity of about 5.05 GW, of which 3.08 GW of newly added gas-based installed capacity came from the provincial government-owned Guangdong Energy, implying an increase of 12.8% in the province's gas-fired power capacity, data from Commodity Insights showed.
"Gas consumption from Guangdong Energy's affiliated gas-fired power plants increased by more than 40% month on month so far in July, " a source close to the company said, adding that this was mainly boosted by increased capacity, as well as higher power peak-shaving demand.
China's manufacturing hub Guangdong had the country's highest gas-based power capacity of 39.55 GW as of 2023, accounting for 31% of the country's total gas power installed capacity, according to Commodity Insights data.
