Indonesia expects LNG output to rise over 17% to 250 cargoes in 2024

Indonesia aims to produce about 250 cargoes of LNG this year compared with 213 cargoes in 2023 on the back of additional production from the BP-led Tangguh Train 3 expansion, Kurnia Chairi, Deputy of Finance and Monetization at upstream regulator SKK Migas said Jan. 12 at an industry event.

The Tangguh Train 3 project has an LNG production capacity of 3.8 million mt/year and it has raised the Tangguh LNG terminal's total LNG production capacity to 11.4 million mt/year since it started operations in October 2023.

"With the addition of approximately 40 cargoes from Tangguh Train 3, we expect around 250 cargoes in this year (2024)," Chairi said.

Out of its total LNG production in 2024, Indonesia expects around 167-170 LNG cargoes to be allocated for exports, accounting for around two-thirds of the total, while the remainder will be allocated for domestic use, according to SKK Migas.

Chairi said that the export allocations for 2024 are higher than around 139.5 LNG cargoes allocated for export in 2023.

He said Indonesia was able to sell 35 to 36 LNG cargoes in the spot market in 2023, including volumes from not only Tangguh Train 3 but also from Bontang LNG, which helped state firms commercialize LNG and supported oil and gas revenue in 2023.

SKK Migas has previously stated that Indonesia expects the share of its LNG production allocated for exports to nearly double from current levels to 65% as its domestic economy and energy demand continues to grow.

Indonesia, one of the main hydrocarbon producers and LNG exporters in Southeast Asia, has been facing depleting gas fields and falling upstream investment, resulting in a steady long-term decline in oil and gas production. The upcoming presidential elections are also putting pressure on the government to prioritize domestic energy supplies.

Gas projects

Indonesia also expects to get additional LNG supplies by 2025-2029 from some gas projects that have been categorized as national strategic projects, the head of SKK Migas Dwi Soetjipto said at the same event.

There are four gas projects, including the $3.37 billion Genting Oil project in Asap Kido Merah, in the West Papua province, which is expected to produce 330 MMcf/day by the fourth quarter of 2025 and the $19.8 billion Inpex-led Abadi Masela project, which is expected to come onstream in 2029.

There is also Chevron's Indonesia Deepwater Development and the Geng North project in offshore Kalimantan. Soetjipto said Geng North is expected to be on stream by 2028.

Italy's Enihad announced a major gas discovery at Geng North in October 2023 in North Ganal PSC, about 85 km off the coast of East Kalimantan in Indonesia. It said preliminary estimates indicated 5 trillion cubic feet of gas in place with up to 400 million barrels of condensate.

Other key Indonesian projects include BP Tangguh's UCC project in Papua, expected to produce 476 MMcf/day of gas and which has a CCS capacity of 1.8 Gigatons. "The FID will be carried out in Q2 2024 and the investment required based on the development plan is $3.84 billion," Soetjipto said.

SKK Migas expects Abadi Masela and Tangguh will be able to feed gas into the Bontang LNG plants.

BP is the operator in the Tangguh project with 40.22% interest through its subsidiary BP Berau. The other partners are MI Berau B.V. (16.30%), CNOOC Muturi (13.90%), Nippon Oil Exploration (Berau) (12.23%), KG Berau Petroleum Ltd and KG Wiriagar Petroleum Ltd (10.00%), and Indonesia Natural Gas Resources Muturi Inc. (7.35%).