Turkish, Vietnamese cement industry mixed on US tariff's impact

With US President Donald Trump's announcing "Liberation Day" tariffs April 2 -- a baseline tariff of 10% on all countries and steeper rates of 20% on the EU and 46% on Vietnam -- cement market participants were mixed on the impact on US cement imports,sources told Platts.

"The tariffs will have a very large effect ... 46% import tariff on cement from Vietnam. That is 4 million mt which is difficult to replace. Interesting situation," Ad Ligthart, Partner at Europe-based Cement Distribution Consultants, said.

Turkey's cement producers said they foresee a positive impact on cement exports to the US with only a baseline tariff of 10% as against Vietnam's 46%, multiple sources said.

"We see a positive impact on export from Turkey. Vietnam shall be driven out of the picture," one producer source from Turkey said.

Turkey was the largest exporter of cement to the US, accounting for nearly 32% of all imports over 2020-23, followed by Canada at 22%. Vietnam's share was 10% followed by Greece at 9%. Total imports of cement into the US during 2024 were 25 million mt, according to data published by the US Geological Survey.

"If these rates [tariffs] become valid, Turkish cement will have a big advantage against Vietnamese cement and even against Algerian cement," another Turkish producer source said. "European rate is also bigger so Spanish and Greek exports will be in trouble against Turkish rate."

Trader sources from Vietnam -- likely the worst hit by the tariffs -- supported the view that Tukey might gain from the development, but added while its exports could increase to the east and south of US, the west might still be a concern.

"Need to wait and see how Vietnam [government] responds to this situation. They may agree to reduce their taxes on US goods," a trader source supplying from Vietnam to the US said.

There are also emerging concerns about how the tariff announcement would impact existing contracts between Vietnamese suppliers and importers who will have to grapple with higher import costs.

"That's a big issue. How can they [importers] tolerate some $30-$40/mt cost increase [on Vietnam cement]," one source said.

Turkish producers also except this development to trigger an adjustment of spot market prices of cement to the US. "The existing prices were not reasonable prices; only we were trying to save our market shares against the low-priced Vietnamese exports," one source said. "If today somebody asks cement for the US, I would not quote the same price I was quoting last month."

Sources from Southeast Asia, on the other hand, expect FOB prices to soften in the near term. "If other trading partners for the US can offer a competitive price to the US, Vietnam would have a setback. Theoretically, this should impact the clinker market as well as they would be selling less cement."

It would be interesting to see how the situation develops in the long term, sources said.

"Turkey is already in a largely sold-out situation with respect to cement supplies to the US. If reconstruction would start in Ukraine, Syria and Gaza in the coming years then the East Med will have very little cement left for long-distance exports. We are getting into an interesting cement supply situation with the US in the coming years," Ligthart added.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, last assessed Platts CEMDEX Turkey at $54/mt March 27.