COP28: Draft global stocktake text calls for phaseout of fossil fuels among options

A draft text of the global stocktake report on climate action released Dec. 5 shows world leaders at the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai are considering the need for an "orderly and just" phaseout of fossil fuels.

The global stocktake is a focal point of COP28, itemizing what countries and stakeholders are doing or failing to do to meet their commitments under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.

Another option included in the draft document suggests leaders are "accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels and to rapidly reducing their use so as to achieve net zero CO2 in energy systems by or around mid-century."

The draft document remains a negotiating text with a third option on the table making no mention of any phaseout of fossils fuels.

Wording on a fossil fuel phaseout is emerging as one of the most contentious issues in the Dubai conference and the draft text reflects the wide divide between many countries.

The stocktake is also designed to help chart solution pathways up to 2050 and help set more ambitious targets at a global and national level, including goals for the increased deployment of renewable energy.

Bone of contention

Several countries have called for an ambitious but well managed phaseout of fossil fuels, but key oil producer nations fear this approach will harm their economies, instead calling for the elimination of emissions via carbon capture, utilization and storage.

Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman dismissed the idea that the world's largest oil exporter would agree to a phaseout.

"Absolutely not," the minister told Bloomberg in an interview on Dec. 4, when asked directly on its stance on a phaseout of fossil fuels.

COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber has repeatedly said that a phaseout of fossil fuels by 2030 is essential and inevitable but that agreeing a consensus on this remains a tough task.

Pressure for a fossil fuel phaseout is mounting, but negotiations will hinge on whether parties can compromise on wording and funding levels, according to analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"Several statements...point to a possible agreement. Yet, the decision could take several forms, based on the level of stringency of the language adopted. The inclusion of a timeframe associated with the phase out of fossil fuels could be considered a substantial success," they said in a recent note.

Unabated coal power

The document also has text referring to the rapid phase out of unabated coal power "this decade", calling for an "immediate cessation of the permitting of new unabated coal power generation."

However, the second option in the draft includes no mention of a phaseout of unabated coal.

Many emerging economies are extremely dependent on coal for their power needs, but coal is very carbon intensive, and a massive emitter of greenhouse gases.

Coal power is the single biggest contributor to climate change, with global emissions of around 8 billion mtCO2e annually from this single source alone.

In terms of domestic share of generation, South Africa is most reliant on coal power (85%), followed by India (74%), Poland (70%), Indonesia (62%) and China (61%).

Under a reference scenario, S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts generation from coal-fired generation peaking this year, before declining by around 26% in 2050. Under a two degrees scenario more or less aligned with net zero, these emissions would need to fall by at least 65% by 2050.

Emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes are estimated to be as high as 36.8 billion mtCO2e in 2023, according to the latest report from the Global Carbon Budget project released Dec. 5. Global emissions from coal (1.1%), oil (1.5%) and gas (0.5%) are all projected to increase, the report added.

The International Energy Agency's recent Net Zero Roadmap report shows coal power must end in advanced economies by 2030 and worldwide by 2040. Yet even in Europe, where coal phaseouts are taking place in several countries, Germany and Poland are failing to align with these goals, while India and China continue to build new coal stations.