Hydrogen-fueled air travel unlikely to help meet 2050 net zero goals: panel

Hydrogen has the potential to decarbonize at least a third of the aviation sector but is decades away from mass adoption, leaving the world dependent on sustainable aviation fuels to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, according to industry experts.

The US has allocated billions of dollars through two recent federal spending packages to scale the production of "clean" hydrogen for a variety of end uses, including as a transportation fuel.

But unlike sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), hydrogen is incompatible with existing aircraft and will require an entirely new fleet in an industry with a low turnover of inventory.

Airbus SE has set a goal to develop the world's first hydrogen-powered plane by 2035, which even for one plane is "an aggressive timescale," said Jayant Mukhopadhaya, an aviation researcher with the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

"Because airplanes live so long — they have 20- to 30-year lifespans — the fleet renewal rates are so slow that any aircraft being bought today is likely going to be in operation in 2050," Mukhopadhaya said during a July 10 panel on decarbonizing the aviation sector, hosted by the Environmental Law Institute.

Assuming the first hydrogen-combustion narrow-body aircraft enter the market in 2035, "by 2050, it can only capture maybe 10%-20% of its maximum market cap," he said.

Zero-emission market

A nonprofit research organization, the ICCT estimates that hydrogen combustion aircraft could make up 39% of the market for zero-carbon air travel, while fuel cell aircraft used for shorter-haul flights could make up about 2%.

Fuel cells convert hydrogen into energy through an electrochemical reaction, as opposed to burning it. The technology is currently being flight-tested and could enter the market by 2030 according to the most optimistic of trajectories, Mukhopadhava said.

The ICCT expects electric planes, meanwhile, to cover only about 0.1% of air travel.

"In the electric department, these will be the most efficient forms of transport," Mukhopadhaya said. "But unfortunately, they will only really be able to carry nine people from New York City to [Washington, DC], at which point, maybe take a bus or the train."

The projections leave more than half of demand for zero-carbon aviation to be met by SAFs, which are made from renewable biomass or waste. "Currently, we will need a lot of SAF to meet our 2050 climate targets," Mukhopadhaya said. "The main thing stopping us is the cost."

The US Inflation Reduction Act includes incentives for SAF production, with tax credits worth up to $1.75 per gallon of qualified fuel, authorized through 2026. The US Treasury Department is currently drafting guidance on how to calculate the carbon footprint of SAFs, which will be used to determine which producers are eligible for the subsidies. The law requires SAF facilities to limit their greenhouse gas emissions to 50% that of conventional jet fuel refineries.

The guidance "becomes really central to determining whether this is a viable option for the United States, for domestic producers," Joe Kakesh, general counsel for the trade association Growth Energy, said on the panel. "So current tax incentives like the [Inflation Reduction Act] are helpful, but they don't on their own necessarily bridge the gap between conventional jet and SAF prices."

S&P Global Commodity Insights' Siri Hedreen produces content for distribution on S&P Capital IQ Pro.