Transport, fossil extraction push Australia's 2021 climate emissions up 0.8% year on year

Australia's greenhouse gas emissions were estimated at 488 million metric tons for calendar year 2021, up 0.8% year on year with transport and non-power stationary energy sectors the main drivers of the net increase, a government report showed June 27.

The Quarterly Update of Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: December 2021, comes in the backdrop of Australia's June 16 pledge to the UNFCCC to raise its emissions target to 43% by 2030 from 2005 levels, versus the prior goal of a 26%-28% cut.

"Australia's greenhouse gas emissions are now at 21.4% below June 2005 levels – the baseline year for our 2030 Paris Agreement target," said Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen.

"It is the Albanese government's view that a global recession, pandemic, and drought are not economically desirable, nor sustainable ways to reduce national emissions," he added.

The data showed emissions in the electricity sector down 4.2% year on year to 160.4 million mt in the year to end-December 2021.

Stationary energy emissions excluding electricity were up 3.3%, however, to 102.6 million mt, while transport emissions were up 4% YoY to 90.9 million mt.

AUSTRALIA: SECTORAL BREAKDOWN OF GHG EMISSIONS (%)

Source: Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources

Coal remains dominant

The report noted that in the power sector, "emissions peaked in 2009 and have since fallen 24.2%. This reflects accelerating renewables deployment and gradual displacement of coal as a fuel source."

Although in decline, coal-fired power generation accounts for over 50% of the Australian power mix. In the week to June 27 was seen running at an average 14.48 GW, or 54% of the mix versus total renewables at 6.62 GW or 25% of the mix, according to the IEA's real time electricity tracker.

Transport emissions have increased 48.1% since 1990, amid recent volatility due to the impacts of the pandemic, the report said.

Fugitive emissions released during coal and gas extraction, meanwhile, have increased 27% since 1990.

Bowen said the previous government's climate policy undermined "the great strides in emissions reduction made through household solar, the renewable energy target and state-based renewable schemes in the electricity sector over recent years."

Carbon dioxide emissions contribute around 70% of aggregate greenhouse gas emissions in Australia while methane emissions contribute 26%.

Australia's energy-related climate emissions of 377 million metric tonnes in 2021 are set to rise to 393 million mt in 2025 and 394 million mt in 2030 under a reference case produced by S&P Global Commodity Insights' Global Integrated Energy Model.