New York reaches record solar power production peak of 2,328 MW

The New York Independent System Operator said March 29 that about 750 MW of incremental behind-the-meter solar power capacity has been added over the past year, helping the state recently set a record high of 2,328 MW of BTM meter solar output.

The NYISO estimated that BTM solar production reached the record of 2,328 MW during the noon hour on March 22, according to an emailed statement.

The previous record of 2,034 MW was reached on April 23, 2021, and the NYISO estimates the state's current total BTM solar capacity at just under 3,500 MW.

"The new solar record is exemplary of the exciting change happening in the electric industry today, Rich Dewey, president and CEO of the NYISO said. "It also shows how markets and innovation are responding to the state's decarbonization targets," Dewey said.

BTM solar PV capacity in New York is expected to reach 4,021 MW dc in 2022 before increasing to 7,281 MW dc by 2030, a 45% increase, according to NYISO data.

When BTM solar output peaked on March 22nd, total bulk power system demand was 15,167 MW, the grid operator said in the statement. Power provided by BTM solar reduces the volume of load served by the bulk power system, and without those BTM resources, total bulk power system load would have been about 17,495 MW, the NYISO said.

"Clear skies, bright sun, cool temperatures, and leafless trees could lead to additional BTM records through the spring," the grid operator said.

"New York's growing and diverse solar market is cemented by robust support from the state's signature NY-Sun initiative which is helping to drive down costs and scale this renewable resource all across the state," Doreen Harris, president and CEO of the New York Energy Research and Development Authority said.

"This new record means more New Yorkers than ever before are powering their homes and businesses with clean affordable solar energy that will provide electricity bill savings while moving the state closer to achieving its nation-leading clean energy goals," Harris said.

Those goals are legislatively mandated through the state's Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act and include installing 6,000 MW of solar by 2025 and 100% zero-emission electricity by 2040.

Fuel mix changes, projections

While New York remains heavily dependent on natural gas-fired power, S&P Global Commodity Insights expects this dependence to decrease over the next five years, largely driven by public policy and corporate decarbonization goals.

Natural gas accounted for 47% of the NYISO's power generation stack in 2021 and S&P Global analysts expect that figure will grow slightly to 48% for 2022, according to the latest North American Electricity Five-year Forecast.

"However, our latest five-year outlook continues to support a gradual retraction from gas in support of further build out in renewables as New York tries to achieve its climate goals," the analysts said.

By 2026, S&P Global anticipates gas-fired generation will decline to 36% of overall market share.

In place of gas, incremental wind capacity will lead to wind generation to increase from 4% of the share in 2021 to 13% by 2026. "Similarly, new solar additions will quickly lift solar from only 1% of total generation in 2021 to 8% over the next five years," according to the forecast.

New York ranked 11th in the US in 2021 in terms of installed solar capacity, according to the trade group Solar Energy Industries Association.

SEIA projects the state will add 4,877 MW over the next five years, which ranks 8th in the US.