ETC warns on limits to biomass role in energy transition

The Energy Transitions Commission has warned that rapidly increasing demand for biomass and biofuel could exceed sustainable supply, and should only be used in a narrow range of difficult-to-decarbonize applications.

Biofuels should be phased out from road transport entirely by 2050, with biomass as a material prioritized over its use as an energy source, the ETC said in a report published July 6. Some energy biomass uses will remain, such as in aviation, where decarbonized alternative fuels are not well developed.

The "Bioresources Within a Net-Zero Emissions Economy: Making a Sustainable Approach Possible" report said most current bioenergy uses, in particular road transport and bulk power generation, would be uneconomic compared to renewable electricity or hydrogen.

"Biomass can make a really valuable contribution to the world's decarbonization," ETC Chair Adair Turner said in a statement. "But truly sustainable biomass is limited in volume, so its use must be restricted to priority sectors where alternative decarbonization options don't exist.

"The good news is that clean electrification and hydrogen often provide a cheaper solution. The challenge for policymakers is to develop those alternatives fast, while supporting targeted use of biomass where it is most needed -- in materials, aviation and for carbon removals -- with a constant attention to ensuring supply of biomass is truly sustainable."

Sustainable supply of biomass

In its "prudent scenario," the ETC sees the sustainable supply of biomass at 40-60 Ej/year globally, with a potential upside to this of around 60 Ej/year, though this would depend on widespread dietary changes away from meat consumption and changes to agricultural land use.

Of this total supply in the prudent scenario, around 30-50 Ej/year would be available either as an energy source or for new forms of material use, the report said. This compares to around 40 Ej of primary bioenergy now, and excludes traditional biomass and biofuel use, such as residential sector fuel wood and charcoal.

By contrast, the IEA said in its Net Zero by 2050 report that bioenergy demand in 2050 was around 100 Ej, with sustainable supply in the same region.

The ETC report finds a "a maximum potential sustainable biomass supply which is in line with the IEA's, but that's only available with major changes in the availability of agricultural land, whereas the ETC's base case is considerably lower."

The IEA noted, however, that land available for bioenergy could be more limited than in its scenario.

Biomass warning

Turner said the report was a warning to policymakers and businesses developing net-zero CO2 emissions plans.

"It is a warning that truly sustainable biomass can only be a small part of the energy system," Turner told S&P Global Platts in an interview July 5.

"That when you rely on it, you have to really focus on sustainability standards; that you should very strongly make sure that you are not using biofuels in environments where there are other better solutions going to become available.

"You should very strongly and rapidly as fast as possible develop those other alternative technologies in order to minimize the dangers that by heavily relying on biomass, you actually end up doing things which are not favorable."

In a statement, World Resources Institute Interim President and CEO Manish Bapna said: "We can't have an 'all of the above' strategy. There are real trade-offs in play, requiring informed decisions."

Sustainability standards

The report recommends "tightly defined and enforced sustainability standards" for biomass supply, covering the whole supply chain and specific to each type of biomass, noting requirements around the globe would vary widely among regions.

"I think you have to have national standards, and those national standards need to apply to imports as well as domestic production," Turner told Platts. "Countries that are absolutely serious about getting to net-zero, they've got to set down some regulations of what is sustainability, and the people who are using imported biomass, there's got to be a burden of proof on them that it meets those."

Carbon-rich ecosystems should be legally protected, with policies to support alternative livelihoods, while "dedicated energy crops should only be grown on a highly limited supply of marginal lands."

"Subsidies for road transport use of biofuels should be phased out as rapidly as possible because there are better ways to decarbonize those," Turner said.

NGO Transport and Environment on July 5 called on the EU to phase out support for "all crop biofuels by 2030 at the latest in its upcoming 'Fit for 55' package, under the Renewable Energy Directive review."

The ETC is a coalition of more than 45 public and private sector energy organizations "committed to achieving net-zero emissions by midcentury." It includes ArcelorMittal, BP, Iberdrola, Orsted, Shell, Tata Group and Volvo Group, as well as financial and academic institutions and NGOs.