Texas power prices in triple digits amid high resource outages, low wind output

Wholesale power prices in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas spiked across the board in the early morning hours of April 7 due to low wind output and high resource outages ahead of solar production coming online.

For hours ending 2 am CT on April 7, Houston Hub real-time locational marginal prices rose to $104.98/MWh, and North Hub LMPs trended at $129.84/MWh. Higher prices were seen at West Hub, at $164/MWh, according to ERCOT data showed.

Prices climbed steadily across these hubs, reaching the $330s/MWh for the hour ending 6 am CT. However, they spiked to quadruple digits by the hour ending 7 am CT, as Houston Hub spiked to $3,777.15/MWh, and North Hub jumped to $3,740.11/MWh. West Hub also saw notable rises, up to $3,699/MWh.

Driving prices upward, ERCOT reported 15,791 MW of outages as of April 7. Of those, about 10,260 MW were reported as "forced" or "forced extension" by ERCOT, and about 4,222 MW were reported as "unavoidable extensions." Only about 1,300 MW were reported as out for maintenance. For the first week of April, total outages have been 4,206 MW, more than 91% above the same time last month, when outages totaled 2,202 MW at the beginning of March.

Lighter winds a factor

Contributing to the price spikes was notably lower wind production for hours 1 am through 7 am CT on April 7, as average wind production trended more than 81% lower compared to the day before. Systemwide wind production averaged about 20,867 MW for hours 1 am through 7 am on April 6, compared to the mere 3,946.8 MW averaged at the same time on April 7.

Offsetting lower wind, natural gas production steadily remained at about 26,000 average MW for the early morning hours of April 7 as cooler temperatures swept across Texas. CustomWeather showed low temperatures for Dallas down to 37 degrees Fahrenheit, down from its five-day normal of 55 F. Similar trends were seen for Houston, with highs down more than 14 degrees from its five-day normal to 45 F on April 7. Highs would trend in the upper 60s F, also a notable departure from their five-day normal in the upper 70s F.

As solar production came online to 16,013 average MW for the hour ending 8 am, Houston Hub LMPs fell to $48.76/MWh, and North and West Hub LMPs dropped to the low $50s/MWh. For 9 am CT, solar generation surpassed average natural gas production, which averaged in the 13,000s MW to 24,803.4 average MW, dampening LMPs to the teens and low $20s/MWh across its major hubs.