CHINA DATA: Crude imports reach four-month low of 10.40 mil b/d in November

China's crude imports fell 10% from October to a four-month low of 10.37 million b/d (42.45 million mt) in November, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Dec. 7.

A month-on-month reduction of 1.21 million b/d in crude inflows was primarily attributed to tight crude import quota availability for China's independent refineries, while the volume is more unlikely to fall further in December as they are keen to take arrivals in late December, S&P Global reported.

In November, crude oil arrivals for the country's independent refineries dropped almost 22% or about 780,000 b/d month on month to 2.85 million b/d, S&P Global data showed.

This suggested the state-run refineries also cut their crude imports as their average utilization rate fell to a five-month low of 81.3% amid slow domestic demand, S&P Global reported.

GAC releases data in metric tons that S&P Global Commodity Insights converts to barrels using a 7.33 conversion factor. On metric tons basis, the volume fell 13% from 48.97 million mt in October.

Over the January-November period, inflows averaged 11.32 million b/d (515.65 million mt), up 12% on the year, GAC data showed.

In December, Sinopec and PetroChina are more likely to keep their crude imports stable or even reduce them in order to avoid deep inventory loss by year-end amid falling crude oil prices.

However, some analysts said they expect the Chinese government to take advantage of the declining crude oil price to build the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). The benchmark Platts Dubai price has averaged $78.86/b in December so far, as of Dec. 7, falling from the average of $83.56/b in November. Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Meanwhile, the independent refineries have taken more barrels to arrive in late December than usual. These barrels will be stored in boned storage and to be moved to their plants immediately when the new crude oil import quotas are available for 2024 to avoid feedstock supply disruption.

Oil product exports

Oil product outflows extended the downward trend to fall 1.7% on the month, reaching a five-month low of 5.08 million mt in November, the customs data showed.

The volume slumped 17% on the year due to a high base in the some month of last year when the Chinese government encouraged outflows by giving new export quotas to boost the economy.

However, exports in November were higher than expected amid tight export quota availability, leaving less quotas for December.

Previously, market sources had estimated China's clean oil product exports at about 2.73 million mt in November, while fuel oil exports were likely stable at around 1 million mt.

GAC will not publish a breakdown by product type until Dec. 18 and the basket of oil products is believed to include gasoline, gasoil, jet fuel and fuel oil.

Meanwhile the stronger year-on-year growth of 34.1% in oil product imports led the country's net oil product exports to drop almost 70% on the year to 925,000 mt in November.

In January-November, China's oil product exports amounted to 58.18 million mt, rising 27% on the year, as the government eased curbs on the outflows at the beginning of the year.

China's oil trade data (mil mt)

Source: China's General Administration of Customs