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Maritime & Shipping, Crude Oil
April 11, 2025
HIGHLIGHTS
Crude production rises 30,000 b/d to 41.04 million b/d
Producers with quotas pump 319,000 b/d above target
OPEC+ grappling with oil price collapse
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OPEC+ production hit an eight-month high in March amid a price collapse fueled by global trade tensions and its own plans to gradually raise quotas in the second quarter, the Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed April 10.
OPEC+ production grew 30,000 b/d month over month to reach 41.04 million b/d in March. This was a significantly smaller increase than in February, when output surged by 440,000 b/d on the month, but it shows the organization's ongoing battle to implement output cuts.
OPEC cut output by 10,000 b/d to 26.84 million b/d in March. This was outweighed by an increase in production by its non-OPEC allies of 40,000 b/d to 14.17 million b/d.
OPEC+ producers with quotas pumped 319,000 b/d above target in March, compared to overproduction of 294,000 b/d in February.
Persistent overproducers Iraq and Kazakhstan again missed their targets. Kazakhstan produced 1.8 million b/d in March -- up 30,000 b/d and well above its quota of 1.468 million b/d. Output is growing as a result of expansion at its major Tengiz project launched in January.
Iraq's output remained steady at 4.07 million b/d month over month, including around 250,000 b/d in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region.
This is higher than estimates given by a senior SOMO official on April 7, who said Federal Iraqi production -- not including output in the KRG -- fell 40,000 b/d month over month to 3.637 million b/d in March.
The UAE also pumped significantly above its quota in March, the survey found, although the Gulf state is set to start gradually boosting output by 300,000 b/d from April, having secured OPEC's agreement for the shift.
Persistent overproduction was cited as one reason why producers implementing 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts announced surprise plans on April 3 to accelerate easing these cuts in the second quarter.
This, combined with US President Donald Trump's introduction of tariffs on certain trading partners, particularly China, and retaliatory measures, has driven oil price volatility. Platts assessed Dated Brent at $62.685/b on April 9, down $15/b since April 1.
Overproducers have agreed to submit revised and frontloaded compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by April 15.
The alliance's two biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, were under their target of 8.978 million b/d, producing 8.95 million b/d and 8.97 million b/d, respectively.
The next meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee and a full OPEC+ ministerial meeting are slated for May 28.
The Platts survey measures wellhead production and is compiled using information from oil industry officials, traders and analysts, as well as by reviewing proprietary shipping, satellite and inventory data.
OPEC+ crude production (million b/d) | |||||
OPEC-9 | Mar-25 | Change | Feb-25 | Quota | Over/under |
Algeria | 0.91 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 0.908 | 0.002 |
Congo-Brazzaville | 0.25 | -0.01 | 0.26 | 0.277 | -0.027 |
Equatorial Guinea | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.070 | -0.010 |
Gabon | 0.24 | 0.01 | 0.23 | 0.169 | 0.071 |
Iraq* | 4.07 | 0.00 | 4.07 | 4.000 | 0.070 |
Kuwait | 2.43 | 0.01 | 2.42 | 2.413 | 0.017 |
Nigeria | 1.48 | -0.02 | 1.50 | 1.500 | -0.020 |
Saudi Arabia | 8.95 | -0.01 | 8.96 | 8.978 | -0.028 |
UAE | 3.05 | 0.00 | 3.05 | 2.912 | 0.138 |
TOTAL OPEC-9 | 21.44 | -0.02 | 21.46 | 21.227 | 0.213 |
OPEC EXEMPT | Change | Quota | Over/under | ||
Iran | 3.23 | 0.00 | 3.23 | N/A | N/A |
Libya | 1.20 | 0.00 | 1.20 | N/A | N/A |
Venezuela | 0.97 | 0.01 | 0.96 | N/A | N/A |
TOTAL OPEC-12 | 26.84 | -0.01 | 26.85 | N/A | N/A |
NON-OPEC WITH QUOTAS | Change | Quota | Over/under | ||
Azerbaijan | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.551 | -0.081 |
Bahrain | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.196 | -0.006 |
Brunei | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.083 | 0.007 |
Kazakhstan | 1.80 | 0.03 | 1.77 | 1.468 | 0.332 |
Malaysia | 0.37 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.401 | -0.031 |
Oman | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.759 | -0.009 |
Russia | 8.97 | 0.00 | 8.97 | 8.978 | -0.008 |
Sudan | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.064 | -0.034 |
South Sudan | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.124 | -0.064 |
TOTAL NON-OPEC WITH QUOTAS | 12.73 | 0.04 | 12.69 | 12.624 | 0.106 |
NON-OPEC EXEMPT | Change | Quota | Over/under | ||
Mexico | 1.44 | 0 | 1.44 | N/A | N/A |
TOTAL NON-OPEC | 14.17 | 0.04 | 14.13 | N/A | N/A |
OPEC+ MEMBERS WITH QUOTAS | Change | Quota | Over/under | ||
TOTAL | 34.17 | 0.02 | 34.15 | 33.85 | 0.319 |
OPEC+ | Change | Quota | Over/under | ||
TOTAL | 41.01 | 0.03 | 40.98 | N/A | N/A |
* Includes estimated 240,000 b/d production in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq | |||||
Source: Platts OPEC+ survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights |
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