Maritime & Shipping, Crude Oil

April 11, 2025

OPEC+ nudges up crude output amid mounting volatility, poor compliance

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HIGHLIGHTS

Crude production rises 30,000 b/d to 41.04 million b/d

Producers with quotas pump 319,000 b/d above target

OPEC+ grappling with oil price collapse

OPEC+ nudges up crude output amid mounting volatility, poor compliance

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OPEC+ production hit an eight-month high in March amid a price collapse fueled by global trade tensions and its own plans to gradually raise quotas in the second quarter, the Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed April 10.

OPEC+ production grew 30,000 b/d month over month to reach 41.04 million b/d in March. This was a significantly smaller increase than in February, when output surged by 440,000 b/d on the month, but it shows the organization's ongoing battle to implement output cuts.

OPEC cut output by 10,000 b/d to 26.84 million b/d in March. This was outweighed by an increase in production by its non-OPEC allies of 40,000 b/d to 14.17 million b/d.

OPEC+ producers with quotas pumped 319,000 b/d above target in March, compared to overproduction of 294,000 b/d in February.

Persistent overproducers Iraq and Kazakhstan again missed their targets. Kazakhstan produced 1.8 million b/d in March -- up 30,000 b/d and well above its quota of 1.468 million b/d. Output is growing as a result of expansion at its major Tengiz project launched in January.

Iraq's output remained steady at 4.07 million b/d month over month, including around 250,000 b/d in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region.

This is higher than estimates given by a senior SOMO official on April 7, who said Federal Iraqi production -- not including output in the KRG -- fell 40,000 b/d month over month to 3.637 million b/d in March.

The UAE also pumped significantly above its quota in March, the survey found, although the Gulf state is set to start gradually boosting output by 300,000 b/d from April, having secured OPEC's agreement for the shift.

Persistent overproduction was cited as one reason why producers implementing 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts announced surprise plans on April 3 to accelerate easing these cuts in the second quarter.

This, combined with US President Donald Trump's introduction of tariffs on certain trading partners, particularly China, and retaliatory measures, has driven oil price volatility. Platts assessed Dated Brent at $62.685/b on April 9, down $15/b since April 1.

 

Overproducers have agreed to submit revised and frontloaded compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by April 15.

 

The alliance's two biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, were under their target of 8.978 million b/d, producing 8.95 million b/d and 8.97 million b/d, respectively.

The next meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee and a full OPEC+ ministerial meeting are slated for May 28.

The Platts survey measures wellhead production and is compiled using information from oil industry officials, traders and analysts, as well as by reviewing proprietary shipping, satellite and inventory data.

 

OPEC+ crude production (million b/d)          
OPEC-9 Mar-25 Change Feb-25 Quota Over/under
Algeria 0.91 0.00 0.91 0.908 0.002
Congo-Brazzaville 0.25 -0.01 0.26 0.277 -0.027
Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.00 0.06 0.070 -0.010
Gabon 0.24 0.01 0.23 0.169 0.071
Iraq* 4.07 0.00 4.07 4.000 0.070
Kuwait 2.43 0.01 2.42 2.413 0.017
Nigeria 1.48 -0.02 1.50 1.500 -0.020
Saudi Arabia 8.95 -0.01 8.96 8.978 -0.028
UAE 3.05 0.00 3.05 2.912 0.138
TOTAL OPEC-9 21.44 -0.02 21.46 21.227 0.213
           
OPEC EXEMPT   Change   Quota Over/under
Iran 3.23 0.00 3.23 N/A N/A
Libya 1.20 0.00 1.20 N/A N/A
Venezuela 0.97 0.01 0.96 N/A N/A
TOTAL OPEC-12 26.84 -0.01 26.85 N/A N/A
           
NON-OPEC WITH QUOTAS   Change   Quota Over/under
Azerbaijan 0.47 0.00 0.47 0.551 -0.081
Bahrain 0.19 0.00 0.19 0.196 -0.006
Brunei 0.09 0.00 0.09 0.083 0.007
Kazakhstan 1.80 0.03 1.77 1.468 0.332
Malaysia 0.37 0.01 0.36 0.401 -0.031
Oman 0.75 0.00 0.75 0.759 -0.009
Russia 8.97 0.00 8.97 8.978 -0.008
Sudan 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.064 -0.034
South Sudan 0.06 0.00 0.06 0.124 -0.064
TOTAL NON-OPEC WITH QUOTAS 12.73 0.04 12.69 12.624 0.106
           
NON-OPEC EXEMPT   Change   Quota Over/under
Mexico 1.44 0 1.44 N/A N/A
TOTAL NON-OPEC 14.17 0.04 14.13 N/A N/A
           
OPEC+ MEMBERS WITH QUOTAS   Change   Quota Over/under
TOTAL 34.17 0.02 34.15 33.85 0.319
           
OPEC+   Change   Quota Over/under
TOTAL 41.01 0.03 40.98 N/A N/A
           
* Includes estimated 240,000 b/d production in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq          
Source: Platts OPEC+ survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights          

 



Rosemary Griffin, rosemary.griffin@spglobal.com, Charlie Mitchell, charlie.mitchell@spglobal.com, Lauren Holtmeier, lauren.holtmeier@spglobal.com

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