OPEC+ output surges ahead of plans to ease voluntary cuts from Q2

OPEC+ crude output surged in February as the group struggles to maintain production discipline and readies for higher quotas from April, the latest Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed March 11.

Total OPEC+ output was up 440,000 b/d month over month at 40.98 million b/d, primarily due to a massive 270,000 b/d jump in production in Kazakhstan, following the expansion of its Tengiz project in January.

Countries with quotas pumped 294,000 b/d above target in February -- up from overproduction of 71,000 b/d in January.

Pressure on overproducers is growing amid a recent price slump. Platts assessed Dated Brent at $71.035/b March 10, down from 2025 highs of $83/b in mid-January.

Prices are down on OPEC+'s confirmation that it will bring some barrels back to market from April, as well as fears of a recession in the US, weak Chinese economic indicators and broader global trade tension.

Overproducers have agreed to submit revised and frontloaded compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by March 17.

The core OPEC group increased output by 160,000 b/d on January levels to 26.85 million b/d in February, the survey found. This was driven by growth in Nigeria and the UAE, as well as Libya, Iran and Venezuela, which are exempt from quotas under the OPEC+ agreement. Libyan output reached an almost 12-year high, while Iran and Venezuela are maximizing production ahead of the expected impact of tougher US sanctions on their oil sectors.

Its non-OPEC allies boosted output by 280,000 b/d to 14.13 mil b/d.

The alliance's two biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, were under their target of 8.978 million b/d, producing 8.96 million b/d and 8.97 million b/d, respectively.

OPEC+ has the option to change its strategy if market conditions require it. Market watchers see price volatility as likely in the coming months, with the impact of US tariffs and changes to sanctions policy generating significant uncertainty around supply and demand.

The next meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee that oversees the OPEC+ production agreement is scheduled for April 5. A full OPEC+ ministerial meeting is slated for May 28.

The Platts survey measures wellhead production and is compiled using information from oil industry officials, traders and analysts, as well as by reviewing proprietary shipping, satellite and inventory data.