US envoy meets with Venezula's Maduro amid pending oil license renewals

US President Donald Trump's envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell, met with disputed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 31 to discuss repatriation flights from the US and the release of US detainees, although it was unclear whether US oil licenses and sanctions were on the table during the talks.

Repatriation talks were to focus on returning to Venezuela the 400 members of organized crime group Tren de Aragua currently in US custody, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said during a Jan. 31 press briefing.

Leavitt did not mention whether the talks were to include a discussion of the company-specific US licenses allowing companies to operate in the Venezuelan oil sector, although the issue will likely continue to simmer in the background.

Average crude production by Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA and its foreign partners was 905,000 b/d in December 2024, up from 795,000 b/d in December 2023, according to estimated PDVSA production data reviewed by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

US refiners rely on imports of heavy crude from countries like Venezuela. Supplies from Caracas could become increasingly important after Feb. 1, when Trump is expected to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the two biggest suppliers of crude to the US.

The Venezuelan government later Jan. 31 issued a statement about the talks between Maduro and Grenell.

"The meeting was held in the framework of mutual respect and addressed various issues of interest for both countries: migration, negative impact of economic sanctions against Venezuela, US citizens involved in crimes in national territory and the integrity of the Venezuelan political system," the government said. "The need to turn relations around was also ratified."

Venezuela's official television channel had earlier reported Maduro wanted to deal with pending issues between the governments, such as his repeated demands that US sanctions on Venezuelan officials and companies be lifted without conditions.

Fernando Ferreira, director of geopolitical risk service at Rapidan Energy Group, told Commodity Insights before the talks were completed that Maduro would have likely insisted on discussing the continuation of US oil licenses to US and European companies as part of any talks.

"However, even if Grenell tables that discussion, it is clear that any deal on migration will have a very short shelf life if the administration chooses to tighten sanctions," Ferreira said.

Grenell would not likely have announced a meeting with Maduro unless a deal was in hand, according to David Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies and chair of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center's Energy Advisory Group.

The minimum elements of a deal would likely include the release of US citizens being held in Venezuela and a commitment to accepting migrants back to Venezuela, Goldwyn said. In exchange, Maduro would likely expect there to be no change in current US policy on licensing, he said.

"This will be the beginning of more extensive negotiations which will address Venezuela's acceptance of migrants from neighboring countries, its interactions with China and Russia, and its internal politics," Goldwyn said. "Additional progress on sanctions relief would likely be in exchange for progress in these other areas," he said.

US Treasury exceptions

Oil companies such as Chevron, Spain's Repsol, Italy's Eni and France's Maurel & Prom have received specific licenses from the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Department of the Treasury to continue their operations in Venezuela.

Together, these OFAC-licensed companies produce around 200,000 b/d of crude oil, or 20% of the total production reported by Venezuela to OPEC in December 2024.

Chevron is the only US company on the ground in Venezuela and sanctions have been a long-running issue there, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said during the company's fourth-quarter earnings call on Jan. 31.

"We comply with laws, and we engage with the government to help inform them of the potential impacts of policy choices, and we'll continue to do so," Wirth said.

In September 2024, the Venezuelan government reported the capture of 14 people, including three US citizens, in connection with an alleged "plot to destabilize the Venezuelan government." Unofficially, it has been reported that there are at least 9 US citizens in Venezuelan jails.

The legitimacy of Maduro, who was sworn in for a new six-year term on Jan. 10, 2025, is in question after he proclaimed himself the winner of the July 28, 2024, presidential elections without presenting electoral records.

Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who won the elections with 70% of the votes according to evidence presented by the opposition, received asylum from Spain. Maria Corina Machado, the leader of the Venezuelan opposition, is in hiding in Venezuela, and many leaders of her party, Vente Venezuela, are imprisoned or refugees in the Spanish embassy in Caracas.