South Korea to sharply reduce LNG's share in power mix by 2038, boost nuclear role

South Korea will sharply reduce the portion of LNG in its power mix to 11% over the next 14 years from 28% currently while raising the role of nuclear to meet the country's growing electricity demand in line with national efforts to reduce carbon emissions, the energy ministry said May 31.

A preliminary report for the 2024-2038 Basic Plan for Power Supply, disclosed by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, has called for cutting the role of LNG in the country's power mix to 11.1% in 2038, compared with 25.1% in 2030 and 28.2% in 2024.

The portion of coal blamed for air pollution will also be decreased to 10.3% in 2038, from 17.4% in 2030 and 32.9% in 2024.

On the contrary, nuclear's share will climb to 35.6% in 2038, from 31.8% in 2030 and 31.4% in 2024, while renewable sources will be responsible for 32.9% in the country's electricity production in 2038, compared with 21.6% in 2030 and 6.9% in 2024.

The portion of hydrogen and ammonia in the power mix will rise to 5.5% in 2038, compared with 2.4% in 2030. Under the blueprint, 12 aging coal-fired power plants, whose lifespans expire by 2038, would be converted into hydrogen-based generators.

"The new version of the long-term power supply roadmap is focused on ensuring stable production of electricity as well as reducing carbon emissions," a senior MOTOE official said. The MOTIE renews the long-term power supply plan every two years.

Under the plan, the portion of carbon-free energy sources in the country's portfolio, which stood at around 40% in 2023, will rise to 53% in 2030 and 70% in 2038, he said.

"The basic plan aims to proactively achieve carbon neutrality by harmonizing the use of renewable sources and nuclear power," the ministry said in a statement. "By reducing the country's dependence on overseas fossil fuels, the plan will contribute to enhancing energy security," it said.

To meet the goal of nuclear power supply, the country will build three additional nuclear reactors by 2038 with a combined capacity of 4.4 GW, marking the first such initiative in nearly a decade.

Under the blueprint, the country, which is currently operating 26 nuclear reactors, will also launch a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) by 2035 for the first time, with a capacity of 0.7 GW.

The new power mix plan would add momentum to the nuclear-focused energy policy by President Yoon Suk-yeol who has vowed to revive the nuclear power sector by reversing his predecessor's nuclear phase-out policy.

President Yoon who took office in May 2022 has speeded up a new nuclear power plan. In December 2022, the country started commercial operation at the country's largest Shin Hanul-1 reactor with a capacity of 1.4 GW, the first time a new South Korean reactor had entered commercial service since the Shin Kori-4 APR1400 in August 2019.

In April this year, the 1.4-GW Shin Hanul-2 reactor started commercial production, which will be followed by the start of commercial operations of 1.4 GW Saeul-3 in October this year and 1,400 MW Saeul-4 in October 2025.

The MOTIE said nuclear reactors will play a key role in meeting the country's growing power demand. "Following the rise of the artificial intelligence sector, the power demand from the semiconductor and data center industries will more than double from 2023 to 2030," the ministry said.

The 2024-2038 Basic Plan for Power Supply will be finalized after public hearings and National Assembly sessions, according to the MOTIE.