EU 2024 poultry imports drop 4% YOY as market redefined by Ukraine quota restrictions

EU imports of poultry products in 2024 fell 4% year over year to 388,000 mt, according to finalized Eurostat data, with the market undergoing significant changes due to stricter quota restrictions on Ukrainian imports.

Chicken meat accounted for 370,750 mt, down more than 5% year over year. Most of this volume came from fresh and frozen chicken cuts, which totaled more than 352,000 mt, down nearly 3%.

A Polish trader attributed the decline in EU poultry imports to two key factors. "Stricter regulations on the duty-free quota for Ukrainian imports have reduced the volume coming from that market, limiting one of the EU's major suppliers. In my opinion, the floods in Rio Grande do Sul disrupted production and exports from Brazil, another important source for poultry to Europe."

S&P Global Commodity Insights' lead EMEA protein analyst Sarah Reid said the decline in poultry imports was also partly due to improved domestic production. "In 2024, chicken production improved year over year due to lower bird flu cases across Europe and reduced feed costs," she said. "This eased reliance on imports of fresh and frozen cuts."

Ukrainian quota restrictions

In May 2024, the EU renewed its Autonomous Trade Measures with Ukraine, extending the suspension of import duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports until June 5, 2025. These measures aimed to support Ukraine's economy amid its war with Russia, providing duty-free access to various Ukrainian products, including poultry.

However, to address concerns from EU member states about potential market disruption, the renewed ATMs introduced reinforced safeguard mechanisms. These measures include an emergency brake that automatically reintroduces tariff-rate quotas if imports of certain sensitive products, such as poultry, exceed average volumes from the second half of 2021 through 2023.

With the EU limiting Ukrainian poultry imports, fresh and chilled chicken shipments to the bloc in the third quarter of 2024 declined 17% year over year to 48,600 mt. Imports from Ukraine declined almost 32%, with the UK absorbing part of this shortfall.

Frozen chicken imports into the EU have undergone a more pronounced shift in market partners. With Ukrainian volumes constrained, Brazil has stepped in to fill the deficit; it held a 49% market share of EU imports in the fourth quarter of 2024. This shift shows how Brazil is increasing its influence in the global market as suppliers adjust to new trade dynamics.

A trader said that regulatory changes have helped keep prices stable in the EU market. "With Ukrainian volumes restricted, EU prices have stayed higher but steady," they said. "In the UK, however, prices have been more volatile and under pressure due to the lack of restrictions."

Another trader said prices for salted boneless skinless chicken breast are being supported. "The quota will expire in mid-June, so all shipments need to be made by mid-May to avoid taxes," they said.

In early April, Brazilian salted skinless boneless breast was offered at $4,100/mt CIF EU, while UK offers ranged slightly lower at $3,900/mt CIF UK.

Natural chicken breast outside the quota saw trades at $3,400/mt CIF EU and $3,300/mt CIF UK. Traders said that while EU buyers continued to secure volumes at firm levels, UK pricing remained more flexible, reflecting ongoing access to alternative supply sources.

Looking into the market in 2025, Reid said: "The European Commission's decisions on Ukraine quotas for agricultural products will impact poultry trade flows into Europe. We are also closely watching developments on the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, which could further shape poultry trade flows."