Trump’s ‘liberating’ tariffs target key US agriculture, protein partners

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on April 2 announcing "discounted reciprocal tariffs' that extend a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, and higher for the "worst offenders," a move that will impact its key agriculture and animal protein trade partners.

In a list displayed at the White House event, President Trump announced a fresh set of tariffs "effective immediately" on major trade partners such as China and the European Union at 34% and 20% respectively.

Canada and Mexico were left out. According to a fact sheet published by the White House on April 2 "USMCA compliant goods will continue to see a 0% tariff, non-USMCA compliant goods will see a 25% tariff, and non-USMCA compliant energy and potash will see a 10% tariff" provided the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders remain in place.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights said that tariffs could send global buyers looking for alternative supplies, while potential retaliatory tariffs could be bearish for US corn and pork.

Similarly, while the US pork trade is expected to experience trade disruption as tariffs impact major trading partners, beef could see limited impact as the US is a net importer.

Source: The President's White House address

Beef

Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on imports from Australia, equivalent to the tariff charged to the US, including currency manipulation and trade barriers.

In his address, the President called out Australia for not buying any beef from the US, while the US "imported $3 billion of Australian beef from them just last year alone."

In 2024, Australia accounted for highest volume of US beef and veal imports, amounting to a net total of 1.1 billion lbs, while in January, the volume stood at 129.5 million lbs, second only to Brazil, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Trump announced a 10% tariff on imports from New Zealand, which exported 559 million lbs of beef to the US in 2024, and 58.6 million lbs in January this year, USDA data showed.

Similarly, a reciprocal tariff of 10% looms over Brazil, which supplied 690.9 million lbs of beef to the US in 2024, and 197.7 million lbs in January.

Reciprocal tariffs on Nicaragua are set at 18%, which accounted for 154.6 million lbs of US beef supplies in 2024, and 8.5 million lbs in January, data from the USDA showed.

Trump's tariff of 10% on Argentina stands over a beef supply of 98.9 million lbs in 2024 and 8.3 million lbs in the month of January.

Notably, the USMCA partners were also major suppliers of beef to the US in 2024, with Canada accounting for 1.01 billion lbs and Mexico exporting 596 million lbs.

US total beef imports estimate for 2024 stood at 4.63 billion lbs, while in 2025, the country is expected to import 4.87 billion lbs, up 5.2% on year, according to the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report published on March 11.

Platts, part of Commodity Insights, assessed 95CL Beef CIF US at $7,143/mt on April 2, unchanged on the day, and up $948/mt from a year ago.

Pork

In his briefing, the President announced reciprocal tariffs on several bilateral trade partners which are also key pork suppliers to the US.

In 2024, Brazil exported 71.25 million lbs of pork to the US, while January supplies were recorded at 8 million lbs, according to the USDA.

Similarly, Trump announced 10% reciprocal tariffs on the United Kingdom, which supplied 11.8 million lbs of pork to the US in 2024, and 577,000 lbs in January, USDA data showed.

Chile, which accounted for 4.9 million lbs of US pork imports in 2024 and 652,000 lbs in January, was reciprocated at 10%.

Canada and Mexico, which were left out of the 'list,' accounted for pork supplies of 708.1 million lbs and 92.2 million lbs respectively in 2024, data from the USDA showed.

US pork imports estimate for 2024 stands at 1.14 billion lbs, while 2025 imports are projected to decline to 1.11 billion lbs, according to the WASDE report March 11.

Platts assessed USDA US Estimated Pork Cutout Values Carcass Spot Price at $97.45/lb on March 31, up $1.8/lb from the previous assessment and 84 cents/lbs above the assessment on April 1, 2024.

Corn and soybeans

The US is a major producer of corn and soybeans, with only a marginal import volume.

US marketing year 2024-25 (September-August) imports are projected at 640,000 mt for corn and 540,000 mt for soybeans, according to the USDA.

In the period between April 1, 2024 to date, the US imported a net total of 508,200 mt of corn, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab).

Out of these imports, 153,311 mt was supplied by Turkey, 150,473 mt by Brazil, 83,405 mt by Argentina, 52,364 mt by Ukraine, while another 36,963 mt came from Romania and 31,640 mt from Morocco, CAS data showed.

Trump announced a baseline reciprocal tariff of 10% on imports from Turkey, Ukraine, as well as Morocco.

Platts assessed US Corn CIF New Orleans at $209.75/mt on April 2, down $1.55/mt on the day, and $22.95/mt higher from the year-ago assessment.

Similarly, for the to-date period starting on April 1, 2024, the US imported a net volume of 204,200 mt of soybeans, according to CAS data.

Out of this volume, 67,311 mt was supplied by Argentina, 36,240 mt by Chile, 34,860 mt by Spain, 23,078 mt by Egypt, 17,289 mt by Brazil, while another 16,486 mt came from Canada and 8,957 mt from Uruguay, CAS data showed.

Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on imports from Egypt and Uruguay at 10% each.

Platts assessed Soybeans CIF New Orleans at $406.2/mt on April 2, down $1.75/mt on the day, and $45.01/mt lower from the year-ago assessment.