Agriculture, Maritime & Shipping, Crude Oil, Refined Products, Grains, Dry Freight

March 25, 2025

US pledges to help secure trade routes under Russia, Ukraine Black Sea deal

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HIGHLIGHTS

Ceasefire deal to help Russian access to agricultural, fertilizer exports

Ukraine agreement eyes banning attacks on energy infrastructure

Black Sea grain exports exceed pre-war levels despite conflict

The US has said it will help ensure safe navigation through the Black Sea -- a key trade route for grain and fertilizers -- and limit attacks on energy infrastructure following separate talks with Russia and Ukraine in Riyadh and amid continuing disruption to shipping markets.

The US and Ukraine have agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea, the White House said in a statement March 25.

Additionally, the two countries agreed to develop measures to ban strikes against energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine. They added that they welcome the good offices of third countries with a view toward supporting the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements.

The agreement came after Ukraine and Russia pledged to the US earlier this month to halt attacks on each other's energy infrastructure for 30 days.

In a separate statement regarding talks with Russia, Washington said it will "help restore Russia's access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions."

Crop exports from Ukraine, Russia and Romania via the Black Sea were 6.4 million mt in February; Ukraine and Russia each accounted for 3.5 million mt and 2.1 million mt, respectively, with Romania at 700,000 mt, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab). Before the war, in January 2022, exports were 6.8 million mt, 1.6 million mt and 1.2 million mt, respectively.

The Kremlin said the US had agreed to support access to world markets for Russian agricultural and fertilizer goods, including access to payment systems for such goods and to shipping services for trade in them.

Achieving agreement would also mean removing sanctions against Russian institutions, such as agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank, and restoring access to the SWIFT payment system for trade in such goods, as well as access to financing and insurance systems, the Kremlin said in a statement carried by Tass news agency.

Grain exports

An end to the Russia-Ukraine war has proved elusive. The conflict has seen acute disruption to freight markets in the Black Sea. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, discontinued Black Sea-East Med Handysize freight assessments after Russia launched its invasion in February 2022.

Russian grain exports from the Black Sea trading region have increased in the first three months of 2025. Compared to the same year-ago period, grain volumes have risen by 10%, with overall transaction volumes reaching 24.48 mt in 2025, up from 22.29 mt in 2024. According to CAS data, these trades have primarily been on Panamaxes, followed by Supramaxes and then Handysizes.

The resumption of attacks on merchant ships in Ukrainian ports threatens 1%of global dry bulk cargoes and risks a rise in food prices, shipping body BIMCO said in October.

Throughout 2024, Ukraine exported dry bulk cargoes from its ports in greater Odesa via a corridor close to its coast. The corridor has replaced a UN-brokered agreement allowing the export of grains and other food products, which ended in July 2023.

Shipping markets, including tankers, have faced volatility. Platts assessed the rate to carry a 135,000 mt cargo of crude from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean at $14.86/mt March 24, up from $9.12/mt at the start of the year and up from an average of $6.35/mt in the month before the war started.

Fertilizer exports from Russia have continued with limited impediments since the outbreak of the war. Russia exported just over 14 million mt of nitrogen fertilizers in 2024, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence's Global Trade Atlas. This is roughly 6% more than the 13.2 million mt exported in 2021.