Feature: US shrimp market faces lower economic growth and 'tariffs PTSD'

Amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs, the US seafood and shrimp market is facing cautious demand influenced by a slower economic growth environment.

The markets were thrown into uncertainty after the Trump administration announced in February and imposed on March 4 a 25% duty on imports from Canada and Mexico -- both exporters of seafood products to the US. Trump's decision to broadly lift the duties only two days later further brought into question market stability.

Some importers who brought seafood from Canada in those two days were forced to pay tariffs, and the US government did not refund them after the tariffs were lifted.

Additionally, under shifting tariff policies, countries have taken countermeasures, which further disrupt global supply chains.

The situation has created what economist Nomi Prins called “tariffs PTSD” during a keynote panel at the Seafood Expo North America held in Boston in mid-March.

“It’s more the buzz around [the tariffs]," Prins said, noting that 99% of US shrimp is imported. "The uncertainty around them makes it sort of cataclysmic."

Tariffs were a primary concern for conference attendees, who have been trying to guess the US government’s next moves. Seafood distributors were uneasy, as any sudden changes in tariffs could shift the market and affect operations.

“No one knows what Trump’s next target will be,” a source at a large US seafood distributor said. “He seems to focus on countries [with which] the US has a trade deficit. But the US has a trade deficit with the entire world."

Demand outlook

In addition to the tariffs, US consumers face lower inflation and reduced economic growth, which also affect shrimp demand and prices.

“On an economic basis, we’ve had a year in which inflation has come down, but economic growth also has come down,” Prins said.

This has supported shrimp demand, but prices have not increased.

“Demand has been good since February, but it seems that prices don’t have an upside,” a US-based shrimp importer said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed US shrimp at $4.40/lb or $9,700/mt, on March 21.

However, the stability could be over soon. Demand from China, the largest importer of Ecuadorian shrimp, has been declining, leading Ecuador-based exporters to divert volumes to higher-paying markets, including the US.

Platts assessed the Ecuador Shrimp Marker at $5,100/mt FCA Guayaquil on March 21, supported by trades of 30-40 count/kg head-on, shell-on in Europe. However, deals for the same size in China were seen at as low as $4,400/mt CFR China.

If the Chinese economy does not recover, there are fears the pressure could reach the US market.

“The Chinese market is saturated, but exporters are now saturating the US and European markets as well,” an Ecuador-based source said.

Participants said much will depend on how soon distributors begin to stock up for summer, when seafood consumption typically increases. Sources are hopeful that as temperatures rise, shrimp purchases and inventories will increase as well.

“We’ve made it through winter, but demand should gradually recover as summer approaches,” an exporter said.

India and Ecuador

Tariffs are not a new subject for the seafood industry, particularly shrimp, as the US government conducted antidumping and subsidy investigations against shrimp imports from Ecuador, India, Indonesia and Vietnam in 2024.

These investigations resulted in the following combined antidumping and countervailing rates, to remain in effect until at least 2027:

• 3.57%-4.41% for Ecuador
• 5.63%-5.87% for India
• 0.20%-3.90% for Indonesia
• 2.84%-221.82% for Vietnam

India-based shrimp providers were more affected by higher duties than their Ecuador-based competitors.

India was the largest origin of US shrimp imports in 2024, with volumes totaling 294,914 mt, or 38.6% of the total. Ecuador ranked second with 187,040 mt, or 24.5% of the total.

“Trump has been mentioning India frequently in speeches,” a large India-based exporter said. “We don’t know what comes next, so it is difficult to work.”