Agriculture, Oilseeds

January 30, 2025

Promising year for Peruvian anchovy set to support aquaculture

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HIGHLIGHTS

Anchovy fishers saw recovery in 2024, with catches reaching 4.85 million mt

The sector, a major fish meal provider, expects a 2025 'equal or better' than 2024

Shrimp, other seafood producers could benefit from increased supply

After a successful 2024 fishing season, Peruvian fishers expect another favorable year for anchovy fishing, which could maintain a positive supply of aquaculture feed and benefit shrimp and other seafood producers.

The anchovy fishing season in Peruvian central-north region is a major source of fish meal globally, which in turn is the main component of feed for aquaculture species, including fish and shrimp. Anchovy is also a source of fish oil, another important marine ingredient.

The Peruvian government closed the 2024 second fishing season in the center-north region Jan. 23, reaching a production of 2.45 million mt, or 96% of the allowed quota, according to the country's national fishing association, SNP.

"After a year to forget in 2023, the year of 2024 will be remembered as the beginning of the recovery in industrial fishing and in the Peruvian economy," SNP President Eduardo Ferreyros said.

He said there would be more clarity about the next fishing season by March, after studies of the species are completed.

In the first season of 2024, between April and June, 2.43 million mt of anchovy was caught, bringing the year's total catch to a combined 4.85 million mt of anchovy. The figure represents a significant increase after only 1.3 million mt was harvested in 2023, when activities were affected by a strong El Niño, which caused the cancellation of the first fishing season.

The positive outcome last year was a result of favorable weather, after the dwindling effect of the El Niño phenomenon, according to Ferreyros. Such weather conditions should extend into the current year, for which he expects 2025 to be "equal or better" than last year.

Impact on aquaculture

Peru is the biggest provider of fish meal globally, with an annual average of 18% of global output for 2013-2023, according to the the Marine Ingredients Organization, IFFO. With typically 60% to 70% protein, and containing omega-3's fatty acids, fish meal is a preferred component in feed in most aquaculture operations.

Currently, feed accounts for around 60% of the cost of shrimp farming, according to market sources. Farmers have been hoping for additional reduction in such costs, allowing them to improve production and margins.

Considering fish meal costs in isolation, they account for 25%-30% of costs of shrimp production in farms, a shrimp producer told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The Platts Ecuador Shrimp Marker reached $5,100/mt FCA Guayaquil Jan. 29, steady from the previous day but down from $5,350/mt FCA Jan. 2. The assessment, which covers 30-40 count/kg head-on, shell on, decreased in part due to low demand, but lower shrimp prices at local farms also were an influence.

Sources said an additional reduction in fish meal will depend on the availability of soybean meals, an alternative source of protein for feed.

"We are hoping for a global soy meal surplus," another shrimp farmer said.

Stronger fish meal supply

From January to November 2024, Peru exported 901,227 mt of fish meal, an increase of 82.76% from the same period in 2023, according to the Peruvian Central Bank.

During the first 11 months of 2024, cumulative fish meal production from the institute's members rose by nearly 16% year on year compared with the same period in 2023, according to IFFO's market intelligence reports.

Prices have also been responding to the recovery in supply. Data from Peru's central bank showed the average export price of fish meal in the country reached $1,627/mt in November 2024, down from $1,796/mt in January of the same year.

In this scenario, fish meal prices could face additional pressure, according to a report from Rabobank from Jan. 21, signed by Gorjan Nikolik and Novel Sharma.

"Fish meal remains relatively expensive compared to soy meal," the report says. "Fish meal prices are likely to face mild downward pressure, as Chinese inventory levels remain high, and demand is expected to soften."


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