Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week

Eyes are on how peace talks in Ukraine will impact commodities, particularly Urals and Platts Dubai values relative to Dated Brent. Biofuel prices are also in focus, with surging used cooking oil prices and falling rapeseed oil prices in Europe.

1. Urals, Platts Dubai values relative to Dated Brent could rise on Ukraine peace talks

What's happening? Russian and US officials continue to discuss terms of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, which could have significant implications for global oil markets. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led Russia to redirect most of its crude exports from Europe to Asia in response to sanctions. Traders now see both Russia's key crude grade Urals and Platts Dubai(opens in a new tab) strengthening relative to Dated Brent if the conflict ends and Russian sanctions are eased.

What's next? US President Donald Trump is due to discuss terms for a ceasefire in Ukraine with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on March 18. Much depends on the terms of any deal and whether a ceasefire holds and leads to a more permanent peace. Oil markets in the second quarter could also be influenced by Russia and its allies in OPEC+, which are planning to ease 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts from April.

Related topic: War in Ukraine(opens in a new tab)

2. FOB ARA used cooking oil prices hit 2.5-year high amid regulatory uncertainty

What's happening? The price of Northwest European used cooking oil(opens in a new tab) reached its highest level in 2.5 years on March 12, Platts data showed, amid limited Asian-origin supply and shifting trade dynamics. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed FOB ARA UCO at $1,230/mt March 12. The last time the value was seen higher was on Sept. 16, 2022, at $1,410/mt. Markets remain uncertain, with high UCO prices continuing to strain margins across the biofuels complex.

What's next? European producers of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel are growing increasingly concerned about protecting their margins amid elevated UCO prices, according to multiple market sources. Factors contributing to elevated feedstock prices include regulatory uncertainty in the US and Asia, pertaining to the US' 45Z clean fuel tax, Indonesia's B40 blending mandate and China's halt to tax rebates for UCO exports.

Further reading: Used cooking oil conundrum(opens in a new tab)

3. Cobalt metal prices reach 19-month highs; traders turn bullish

What's happening? European cobalt metal prices soared to 19-month highs on March 13 as market participants resumed buying after the Democratic Republic of Congo announced a cobalt export ban on Feb. 22. Platts assessed European cobalt metal mixed-use basket B at $17.50/lb IW Rotterdam on March 13, the highest level since Aug. 7, 2023, after prices rose $5.50/lb or 45% week on week. The DRC produces around 70% of the world's supply, with around 11.4 million mt of cobalt reserves. Global mined supply totalled around 290,000 mt in 2024, with Chinese-owned CMOC Group producing 114,000 mt in the same year, up 55% on year.

What's next? The DRC government is expected to announce a cobalt export quota within the next three months, but whether this will be as well as the export ban, is unclear. Some traders expect the price to rally further, above $20/lb in the coming days.

4. China's CCER carbon market faces integrity, policy challenges after hectic start

What's happening? The relaunch of the China Certified Emission Reduction, or CCER, market in early March marked a significant step with the first issuance of 9.5 million mtCO2e of CCERs. The Beijing Green Exchange reported an accumulated CCER trade volume of 937,850 mtCO2e on March 7-14, with the daily average CCER price reaching Yuan 92.63/mtCO2e ($12.80/mtCO2e) on March 14, surpassing the price of China's compliance emission allowances, or CEAs, over the same period.

What's next? The future of the CCER market is fraught with policy uncertainties, especially in how to coordinate with other environment certificate markets and avoid double counting, how to justify the necessity of carbon finance for renewable projects that have already received government subsidies, and how to safeguard the integrity of nature-based projects. For a sustainable CCER demand growth, analysts and market participants said China needs to tighten its compliance market's CEA supplies and other emission control policies.

5. Northwest European rapeseed oil prices drop

What's happening? FOB-Dutch Mill rapeseed oil prices dropped to a five-month low due to escalating trade tensions following China's announcement of steep tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil. As of March 17, prices reached Eur993/mt, the lowest since October 2024. The tariffs, effective March 20, include a 100% levy on Canadian rapeseed oil, impacting both the Canadian and European markets. This has led to uncertainty across the vegetable oil complex, with sources noting that the selloff in ICE Canola futures is contributing to the downward pressure on European rapeseed oil prices.

What's next? Market participants are cautious, anticipating further price declines unless macroeconomic conditions stabilize. The situation could change rapidly, especially with Brazil's expected soybean crop and Argentina's decent yield, which may influence market dynamics. Additionally, low palm oil stocks could further complicate the rapeseed oil market.

Reporting and analysis by Rosemary Griffin, Olly Wroe, Nathan Day, Ivy Yin and Uzma Gulbahar