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iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Indices – Q4 2022

iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Indices – Q4 2022

iBoxx ALBI Monthly Commentary: December 2022

iBoxx SGD Monthly Commentary: December 2022

Taking a Thematic Indexing Approach to Sustainability: Examining the Case for Clean Energy

iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Indices – Q4 2022

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Paulina Lichwa-Garcia

Associate Director, Fixed Income Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Index

The iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Index total return level declined over the course of 2022, in line with other bond markets, which all were under pressure throughout the year.  The index touched its low point at the end of October, falling under 99 for two days.  Toward the end of the year, the levels recovered, but annual yields have stayed elevated even at the end of 2022, as countries’ interest rates rose, following increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve.  Meanwhile, index duration plunged (see Exhibit 4), with subdued new debt issuance.

iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Indices: Exhibit 1

iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Indices: Exhibit 2

iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Indices: Exhibit 3

iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Indices: Exhibit 4

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iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Indices – Q4 2022

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Paulina Lichwa-Garcia

Associate Director, Fixed Income Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

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Florian Guth

Principal, Fixed Income Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Index

The iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Index total return level declined over the course of 2022, in line with other bond markets, which all were under pressure throughout the year.  The index touched its low point at the end of October, falling under 99 for two days.  Toward the end of the year, the levels recovered, but annual yields have stayed elevated even at the end of 2022, as countries’ interest rates rose, following increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve.  Meanwhile, index duration plunged (see Exhibit 4), with subdued new debt issuance.

Exhibit 1: Total Return of the iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Index

Exhibit 2: Total Return by Maturity

Exhibit 3: Key Analytics of the iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Index

Exhibit 4: Key Analytics of the iBoxx Tadawul SAR Government Sukuk Index

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iBoxx ALBI Monthly Commentary: December 2022

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Kangwei Yang

Director, Fixed Income Product Management

S&P Dow Jones Indices

December 2022 Commentary

iBoxx ALBI Monthly Commentary: Exhibit 1

2022 started off with (somewhat) bullish market expectations, but soon after, rising inflation, interest rate hikes and recessionary fears took over, which made it a year to forget for both fixed income and equities.  The S&P 500® lost 19.44% in 2022, recording its worst year since 2008.  U.S. Treasuries—as represented by the iBoxx $ Treasuries—also lost ground, falling 12.94% in 2022.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) loosened its monetary policy in 2022, in contrast to central banks from other developed markets.  Despite woes in the Real Estate sector, Chinese Government Bonds and Policy Bank bonds performed well in 2022—as represented by the iBoxx ALBI China Onshore—returning 3.30% (in local currency terms).  Investors were also keeping a keen eye on how the recent pivot in China’s COVID-19 strategy would play out and how it would affect regional and global markets in 2023.

In the broader Asian fixed income markets, the iBoxx Asian Local Bond Index (ALBI) (unhedged in USD) returned 2.90% in December 2022 but ended the full year down -7.39%.  In 2022, one-half of the eligible markets recorded positive returns in local currency terms.  Gains were led by Indonesia (up 3.63%), China Onshore (up 3.30%) and India (up 2.46%).  Among the bottom performers were South Korea (-8.97%), Hong Kong (-8.51%) and Singapore (-6.37%).

Apart from China Onshore (-2.55%) and Indonesia (-1.87%), short-dated bonds (1-3 years) significantly outperformed long-dated ones (10+ years) in 2022.  The difference in performance between short-and long-dated bonds was greatest in South Korea and Hong Kong, recording gaps of 18.38% and 18.95%, respectively (see Exhibit 11). Compared to last year, yields across iBoxx ALBI eligible markets rose across the board (except for China Onshore).  Hong Kong saw its yield surge 282 bps to 4.80% as of Dec. 31, 2022, while the Philippines, South Korea and Singapore recorded increases of more than 100 bps.  Combined with changes in the other markets, the overall index yield increased by 85 bps to 4.15%.

iBoxx ALBI Monthly Commentary: Exhibit 2

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iBoxx SGD Monthly Commentary: December 2022

December 2022 Performance

Faced with record-high inflation, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, supply chain disruptions and interest rate hikes, 2022 was a turbulent year for the global financial markets.  With China relaxing COVID-19 restrictions and the Bank of Japan adjusting its longstanding yield curve control measures, 2022 continued to deliver surprises even in the last month of the year.

Singapore’s GDP growth halved from 7.6% in 2021 to 3.8% in 2022, which exceeded the government forecast of 3.5%. GDP growth weakened in the fourth quarter of the year, as the reported estimates came in at 2.2%, almost one-half the 4.2% growth for Q3.  The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Core Inflation level remained unchanged in November, at 5.1%, due to the easing in services and utilities inflation, which was offset by larger increases in the cost of food, as well as retail and other goods.

With inflation remaining at elevated levels and signs pointing to an economic slowdown, markets cooled off in December after a relief rally in November.  The Dow Jones Singapore Index ended the year with a 2.45% loss for the month and a 14.95% loss for 2022.

The iBoxx SGD Overall gained 1.21% this month, supported by a 1.65% gain from Singapore Government Securities (SGS) and a modest 0.39% gain from the non-sovereigns.  Year-to-date, the index returned -5.92%.

iBoxx SGD Monthly Commentary: Exhibit 1

iBoxx SGD Monthly Commentary: Exhibit 2


Taking a Thematic Indexing Approach to Sustainability: Examining the Case for Clean Energy

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Jason Ye

Director, Strategy Indices

Introduction

As debates continue over how much is enough to green the world’s energy supply, transparent, diversified and liquid strategies may help investors play their part while also pursuing sustainable outcomes, says Jason Ye, Head of Strategy Indices in APAC at S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI).

Fresh from the discussions at COP27 in November, clean energy is top of mind on the global agenda. For many investors, the financial incentives to move as quickly as possible from fossil fuels to renewables such as solar, wind and hydroelectric power are greater than ever.

In short, the cost of climate change is at a tipping point. The economic impact of the increasing frequency and severity of disruptive natural disasters hit USD 343 billion last year—over 95% of which was due to weather and climate-related events—making 2021 the third-costliest year on record, according to Aon’s annual report.

The numbers appear to get even more striking as time goes on. Deloitte, for example, estimates that climate change could cost the global economy USD 178 trillion over the next 50 years.

It is no surprise to see extreme heatwaves, drought and flooding become more common. The World Meteorological Organization’s latest findings show the past eight years on track to be the eight warmest on record.

Yet in the face of the mounting evidence, the journey toward a renewables-led future is proving to be relatively slow and long. Perhaps most revealing is the UN’s own 2022 progress report on its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); it concludes that, when it comes to affordable and clean energy, the current progress is insufficient.

For example, the pace of electrification has slowed amid the growing challenge of getting to those hardest to reach. Intensified efforts are needed in the least developed countries to jump-start access to clean cooking fuels and technologies. Without these, the health of 2.4 billion people is at risk. Further, rising commodity, energy and shipping prices have increased the cost of producing and transporting solar photovoltaic modules, wind turbines and biofuels worldwide.

Despite these trends, investors may offer optimism for greening the world’s energy, based on how they allocate capital. The motivation should be strong; achieving the desired goal can potentially boost the size of the global economy by USD 43 trillion in net present value terms from 2021 to 2070, according to Deloitte.

Cleaning Up with More Capital

There are many reasons why investors may be encouraged by the combination of public and private sector support for renewables.

Among various recent initiatives, the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates agreed to invest USD 100 billion in clean energy projects, with the aim to produce 100 GW of clean energy worldwide by 2035. Meanwhile, the European Investment Fund (EIF), the region’s largest venture capital and private equity financier, made a clear statement at COP27 by signing investments totaling EUR 247 million (USD 247 million) to enable five equity funds to back EUR 2.5 billion of climate action investment that helps deliver the EU’s climate and energy targets.

On a grander scale, governments representing over half of global GDP agreed at COP27 to the “Breakthrough Agenda,” a 12-month action plan to help make clean technologies cheaper and more accessible everywhere.

Interest in renewable energy and clean tech across developed and emerging markets has been accelerating. In the first 10 months of 2022, for example, the UNFCCC (UN Climate Change) said USD 94 billion had been committed by governments to demonstrating clean energy technologies by 2026 in response to U.S. president Joe Biden’s USD 90 billion challenge.

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