Uncertainty around the timing, scope, and duration of U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from other countries makes it difficult for companies to assess potential impacts. Against this backdrop, earnings calls comments represent a broad, if imperfect, survey of corporate sentiment regarding tariff-related risks. We have assessed comments from 533 rated companies globally. Corporate guidance largely does not reflect tariff impacts, so worst case outcomes will cause substantial earnings revisions. Companies appear broadly sanguine and believe price increases, supply chain localization, and inventory movement will soften the blow. The greatest risks are likely in sectors with deep supply chain integration across North America, such as autos and aerospace. The near universal intent to pass through higher tariffs via prices means either inflation will result or, if the pricing environment is more resistant, corporate profit margins will begin to feel pressured.
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