The resilience of household services spending and the strength of labor demand was the biggest surprise for me in 2024. Growth stayed higher for longer in the U.S. and recovered a bit faster in Europe than expected. Unemployment rates remain near multi-decade lows across a wide swath of advanced economies. The new year will almost certainly feature large tariff policy moves by the U.S. Some of these may be proposed for economic reasons, and others will not. How the global trade and financial re-configuration evolves will reflect not only U.S. policy moves, but also those of the rest of the world. It is these reaction functions that I will watch in 2025.