China's auto sector will be a survival of the fittest over the next 12-24 months. Margin pressure remains high for auto makers because of a price war and rising sales of electric vehicles (EVs). We expect domestic light vehicle sales to grow by 0%-3% annually in 2025-2026, from 0%-2% in 2024. Domestic EV sales will likely rise 10%-20% a year over the period, from about 30% this year. Upside may emerge if the government steps up stimulus that boosts economic growth and consumer confidence. Key risks are demand weakness, intense competition, and the transition to EVs.