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Sustainability Insights Research: Biofuel Regulations Stoke Demand, Volatility Hits the Brakes

Increasing biofuel use, which we expect to accelerate over the next 5-10 years, should spur more demand over time, but recent volatility in demand may keep near-term investment outlays muted. While biofuels have been used for decades, notably in transportation, regional and sectoral decarbonization targets and regulation can spur demand and production to another scale. Their use in existing engines and their lower carbon footprint when sustainably produced provide key competitive advantages to fossil fuels. The regulatory landscape is rapidly evolving, and we believe this could benefit the agribusiness and refining sectors to some extent because of favorable remuneration schemes beyond top-line growth. But cost pressures on margins and profit volatility from competing feedstocks remain key risks, while increased fuel cost is an added risk for the transportation sector.

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