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Covered Bonds Outlook Midyear 2024: Growth And Rates Support Performance

S&P Global Ratings' covered bond rating outlook remains stable, underpinned by the ample credit enhancement available to most of the programs that we rate and the presence of unused rating notches, both of which reduce the risk of downgrades. We expect that eurozone GDP growth will gradually recover toward the potential on the back of an increase in consumer spending in the second half of 2024 and investments in 2025. Job vacancies are still plentiful, and we expect unemployment rates to remain at, or close to, record lows in all major European economies. Eurozone headline inflation should move back to the 2% target by mid-2025, enabling the European Central Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points per quarter until the deposit rate bottoms out at 2.5% in the third quarter of 2025.

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