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Swedish Covered Bonds Withstand Higher Mortgage Rates

Average monthly mortgage payments in Sweden have increased by more than 68% since 2022, as policy and mortgage rates increased to multi-year highs. Housing and utility costs now comprise 64% of the recent growth in consumer price index (CPI). The average monthly payment for a sample of over a million mortgage loans backing Swedish covered bond programs we rate has risen to Swedish krona (SEK) 2,527 in 2024 from SEK1,503 in 2022. Borrowers already paying high installments have been proportionally more affected by increasing interest rates. Since 2022, the proportion of borrowers paying less than SEK2,000 has decreased to below 50% from 74% and the proportion paying more than SEK5,000 has increased to 7.4% from 2.2%. Swedish mortgage performance remains stable despite historical increases in monthly payments. We expect Swedish covered bond ratings to remain stable, given high overcollateralization buffers and unused notches of uplift from the issuer credit rating.

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