Defaults continued to tick up last week following the confirmation of the highest January tally since 2010. We expect defaults to remain elevated in 2024, particularly in North America. We forecast the trailing-12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate to reach 4.75% in the U.S. and 3.50% in Europe by December 2024. For both regions, it is likely that the peak default rate will occur earlier in 2024 before easing back by the end of the year. In a quiet week ahead, a series of survey data will add color on economic growth in the first quarter, including on European consumer confidence for January (Wednesday), on a range of global flash purchasing managers' indices for February (Thursday), and on the German business climate for February (Friday).