We expect rated FMIs to repeat their generally solid 2023 performance in 2024. Treasury income (on reinvested client margins and deposits) is likely to fall in 2024, but many FMIs should benefit from continued volatility across asset classes. In general, the most unhelpful cyclical conditions for FMIs are low volatility, securities market prices that reset to a far lower level, and declining policy rates. But earnings in this cyclically-resilient industry have become more diverse and repeatable for many FMIs. Short-term risks to ratings are idiosyncratic. ICE and Nasdaq are deleveraging after previous deals, and a severe downside scenario could slow progress. Coinbase continues to face specific pressure as it rebuilds financial performance and navigates regulatory scrutiny. Historically a steady performer, SIX Group’s earnings could come under more pressure if market conditions are unsupportive.