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2024 Structured Finance Outlook: Australia And New Zealand

Australian structured finance issuance is entering a likely challenging 2024 from a position of strength. Issuance and collateral performance have held up well so far, defying expectations in the face of multiple interest rate rises and persistent cost-of living pressures. While a "higher for longer" interest rate policy will weigh on affordability for new home loans, low unemployment and renewed demand for housing will see mortgage lending volumes remain solid. In addition, we expect structural shifts in the auto sector and population growth tailwinds to boost new issuance momentum in 2024. Low unemployment, savings buffers, and spending reprioritization have kept arrears low across most structured finance transactions. Modest property price growth is also affording existing homeowners greater agency in self-managing their way out of any financial stress.

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